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New political poll: Main parties in a tight race, but Luxon’s popularity drops

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Five months out from the election, the latest Newshub-Reid political poll shows Te Pāti Māori could hold the keys to power, with the two main parties running neck and neck.

The poll, released this evening, had Labour at 35.9 percent, down 2.1 points; while National are down 1.3 points to 35.3 percent.

The poll also shows ACT is at 10.8 percent, up just 0.1 percent, while the Greens are on 8.1 percent, unchanged despite recent problems within the party.

Te Pāti Māori are at 3.5 percent and on current polling could get five seats, which would enable it to form a government with Labour and the Greens.

Assuming it wins an electorate, that would give it five seats in the House, which with Labour’s 46 and the Greens’ 10 is enough to reach the 61 seat threshold to form a government.

New Zealand First has risen 0.8 points to 3 percent – still not enough to return to Parliament.

National ruled out working with the Māori Party last week, which could make the party’s attempts to form a government that much harder.

Chris Hipkins’ personal popularity as prime minister – just under four months since he took office – is now at 23.4 percent, up 3.8 points.

But National leader Christopher Luxon was down 2.4 points to 16.4 percent as preferred prime minister, his lowest point in Newshub’s poll so far.

That is lower than the 18.4 percent that former National leader Judith Collins scored in a similar Newshub poll before losing the 2020 election in a landslide.

The election is set for 14 October, exactly five months from today.

Another question by Newshub asked voters if they thought leaders were in touch with the issues – 49.9 percent agreed Hipkins was in touch, but the results were almost the exact opposite for Luxon, and 47 percent said he was out of touch with the problems affecting New Zealanders today.

Other polls continue to point towards a tight election.

A Taxpayers Union-Curia poll released last week had Labour dropping to 33.8 percent while National was at 35.6 percent.

That poll had ACT picking up 3.2 percentage points compared to the previous survey, bringing its support to 12.7 percent, almost equivalent to the 3.1 percentage points Labour lost. In that poll the Green Party gained 0.3 to 7 percent, and Te Pāti Māori gained 0.8 to 3.7.

A 1News Kantar poll conducted in March showed Labour leading National by a tight margin, 36 to 34 percent, with the Greens and ACT both at 11 percent.

Since Newshub’s last poll in January, there has been the flooding in Auckland, Cyclone Gabrielle, the sacking of Stuart Nash, the defection of Meka Whaitiri to Te Pāti Māori, the resignation of Dr Elizabeth Kerekere from the Greens, and National’s decision to rule out working with Te Pāti Māori.

SOURCE RNZ

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Police say person who fired gun at officers still at large

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Police say a person who fired a gun at officers in Napier is still at large.

Eastern District Commander Superintendent Joel Lamb said Police tried to stop a vehicle in the Pirimai Area at about 10pm on Tuesday.

He said someone in the back seat pointed what was presumed to be a firearm at officers pursuing the vehicle.

“Staff have then heard two distinct gunshots as the firearm was discharged.

“Fortunately, neither of our officers were injured, and the patrol vehicle did not sustain any damage.”

He said hours later, the vehicle was seen travelling north on the Waikato Expressway towards Auckland.

Police seized the vehicle at an address in Manurewa, but they had not found the alleged offender.

Lamb said people who lived at the Manurewa address were engaging with Police.

He said Eastern District and Counties Manukau Police were making enquiries.

“Presenting a firearm at a Police officer is a serious escalation that puts our staff and the wider community at risk. This behaviour is entirely unacceptable.

“We are taking this incident extremely seriously and will be pursuing all lines of enquiry to locate the offender and hold them accountable.”

Police asked anyone who witnessed the incident to contact Police on 105 or online using the reference number 261111/3764.

Information could also be provided anonymously via Crime Stoppers on 0800 555 111.

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New Zealand sides named for RLWC finals

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The players tasked with ending Australia’s Rugby League World Cup dominance have been named.

The Kiwis and Kiwi Ferns have announced their squads for this Sunday’s World Cup finals in Brisbane.

Both sides are chasing their first titles since 2008, and both are looking to end their opponents run of three crowns in a row.

“Our Kiwi Ferns have been so dominant in years gone by, and we want to bring dominance back to this jersey, so I think it will be a case of who wants it more,” said co-captain Georgia Hale of the impending clash.

The Kiwis get a major boost for the final as they welcome back Ronaldo Mulitalo after he served a one-match ban for a high tackle against Fiji Bati.

Mulitalo replaces Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, who moves to the six-man bench, which again includes utility Te Maire Martin, middle forwards Naufahu Whyte, Erin Clark and Xavier Willison plus fullback Keano Kini.

Loose forward Joseph Tapine will make his 30th Test appearance in a familiar pack again, including second-rowers Isaiah Papali’i and Briton Nikora, and props James Fisher-Harris and Moses Leota.

Winger Jamayne Isaako is on the cusp of claiming the New Zealand record for most Test points.

His five goals against Tonga lifted his career points tally to 225 – level with Shaun Johnson – while centre Casey McLean goes into the final with 16 tries in just eight Tests.

Fisher-Harris will again captain the team.

Fullback Ponga said the goal of the group was clear.

“We have high expectations around what we want to achieve, and obviously winning a world Cup is one of them.”

Meanwhile, Ricky Henry has selected a settled side to take on the Jillaroos, led by their lethal centre combination of Stacey Waaka and Mele Hufanga.

Veteran Apii Nicholls takes the number one jersey, Leianne Tufuga and Mackenzie Wiki on the wings.

Henry has stuck with his halves pairing of Chantay Kiria-Ratu and Raecene McGregor with Alexis Tauaneai, Georgia Hale and Otesa Pule up front.

Rounding out the starting pack is Shaniece Monschau, Kaiyah Atai, and Angelina Teakaraanga-Katoa.

“We have been building well throughout the tournament; we understand the Jillaroos side, and will give it our all to make New Zealand proud this weekend,” said Henry.

RLWC Finals:

Kiwi Ferns vs Jillaroos- 6.10pm

Kiwis vs Kangaroos – 9.35pm

Sunday November 15

Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Live blog updates on RNZ

Kiwi Ferns:

1. Apii Nicholls 2. Leianne Tufuga 3. Mele Hufanga 4. Stacey Waaka 5. Mackenzie Wiki 6. Chantay Kiria-Ratu 7. Raecene McGregor 8. Alexis Tauaneai 9. Georgia Hale 10. Otesa Pule 11. Shaniece Monschau 12. Kaiyah Atai 13. Angelina Teakaraanga-Katoa.

Interchange: 14. Ashleigh Quinlan 15. Annessa Biddle 16. Shannon Mato 17. Ivana Lauitiiti.

Reserves: 18. Brooke Anderson 19. Zahara Temara 20. Brianna Clark 21. Abigail Roache 22. Tenika Willison.

Kiwis:

1. Kalyn Ponga, 2. Jamayne Isaako, 3. Dane Gagai, 4. Casey McLean, 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo, 6. Kodi Nikorima, 7. Jahrome Hughes, 8. James Fisher-Harris (c), 9. Jeremy Marshall-King, 10. Moses Leota, 11. Isaiah Papali’i, 12. Briton Nikora, 13. Joseph Tapine (v/c).

Interchange: 14. Te Maire Martin, 15. Naufahu Whyte, 16. Erin Clark, 17. Xavier Willison.

Reserves: 18. Keano Kini, 19. Phoenix Crossland, 20. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, 21. Scott Sorensen, 22. Leo Thompson.

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Parliamentary Service working on extra chairs and offices for increased number of MPs

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The chief executive of the Parliamentary Service is confident there will be enough room to accommodate the increased number of MPs and their staff coming into Parliament.

On current numbers, up to 131 MPs could be sitting in the Chamber following the election, brought on by a record overhang result.

Clerk of the House of Representatives Dr David Wilson told the Spinoff that currently the debating chamber had enough chairs to seat 124 MPs – including the Speaker of the House – and work was being done to accommodate more by altering the seating arrangement.

In a statement, Parliamentary Service chief executive Rafael Gonzalez-Montero said planning for a larger Parliament had been going for “some time”.

“Now that the election results have confirmed an increase to the number of members we are looking at several options.

“We are confident we will be able to accommodate all members within the Chamber.”

Chief Executive of the Parliamentary Service Rafael Gonzalez-Montero appears before select committee.
Parliamentary Service chief executive Rafael Gonzalez-Montero.

VNP / Phil Smith

Gonzalez-Montero said office accommodation for members and their staff would be “stretched” for a short time, but the new Members’ Building was only a few months away from “practical completion”.

That building – located behind Parliament – was due to be ready to occupy in April next year and had capacity to accommodate around 30 backbench MPs.

“All members should be in fit-for-purpose accommodation from that point,” Gonzalez-Montero said.

Following the 2023 election, 123 MPs sat in the Chamber – a record number at the time. That decreased to 122 following the resignation of National MP Judith Collins.

Collins held the seat of Papakura and stepped down in May and Parliament voted against holding a by-election because it was too close to the election.

The election result also meant high-ranking National Party MPs like Chris Bishop, Paul Goldsmith, Nicola Willis and Gerry Brownlee – Speaker of the House and an MP for 30 years – would likely not make it back into Parliament.

Only resigning or retiring MPs were permitted to give a valedictory speech meaning none of them would get the chance to give a valedictory statement.

Asked if their would be special allowances for valedictories, Wilson said in a statement that normally only MPs were allowed to speak in the House but the House could suspend its own rules or temporarily alter them.

“It could do so to allow former members to address the House.”

Wilson said no such arrangements could be made until the next Parliament opened and members sworn in.

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