Speaking to a business audience at Parliament on Thursday morning, Grant Robertson said ministers were told if they wanted to progress particular opportunities, they had to look for savings opportunities within their ministries’ existing budgets.
“For the Budget I will announce next week, agencies were told that we would be looking at a wide range of factors in determining their level of budget funding, including how many vacancies they were carrying, historical rates of underspends and the growth of FTEs [fulltime equivalents] over time,” he said.
Robertson said the $4 billion would mostly go towards funding agencies’ existing cost pressures.
The government would detail what made up this number when the Budget was released, but savings had been found across a wide range of areas, some of which had been well publicised already, he said.
They included closing contingencies the government wasn’t convinced were still needed, reassessing forecast requirements of government departments and returning as savings underspends from existing initiatives.
Programmes such as the public media merger were stopped, the clean car upgrade and social leasing schemes curtailed, and funding associated with the affordable water reforms and Covid programmes that were no longer needed were returned.
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has already indicated that costs the government will incur in the Cyclone Gabrielle recovery will be met within existing Budget funding, and taking on some debt.
Robertson said the government was well-placed in that area, as public debt was significantly lower than many other countries, and in the bottom third of the OECD.
“Our debt sits at around 19 percent of GDP, well below the 30 percent ceiling that we indicated when we set the fiscal rules last year,” he said.
The cash deficit (OBEGAL) has blown out significantly since the last forecast in December (due in part to lower tax take and Cyclone Gabrielle), but net debt and core Crown expenses were lower than expected.
However, there has been a major increase in migration, that would likely help stimulate economic growth. Numbers to the end of February showed there was a net migration of 52,000.
Cyclone recovery a Budget priority
Robertson said the government had put responding to the cyclone ahead of some other priorities ministers would like to have progressed.
Spending was now tracking back toward the low-30 percent of GDP range, but Robertson said he was reluctant to speed that up.
“Going faster than we are in that track would require significant cuts to core services to austerity levels and would have long-term consequences for people and communities. I am not prepared to do that,” he said.
The government has already dampened down expectations for this year’s Budget.
Two weeks ago, in a pre-Budget speech of his own, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins said 18 May would bring a “no frills” Budget, focused on supporting New Zealanders through the cost of living and recovering from Cyclone Gabrielle.
“It’s not right for households to be tightening their belts if the government isn’t also seen to be doing the same,” Hipkins said at the time.
Hipkins ruled out introducing any new taxes – such as a cyclone levy or capital gains tax – in the Budget.
The recovery will instead be funded by existing Budget funding, some reprioritisations, and some debt.
Hipkins said tax brackets would need to be adjusted in time, though the prime minister said the current high inflation environment was not the right time.
Tax revenue was forecast to drop from 30.2 to 29.9 percent of GDP, while net debt was forecast to rise from 17.2 to 19.9 perccent of GDP.
Source: RNZ