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National and Labour stuck in the middle
Analysis – The consistent theme of this year’s election campaign has been the decline of the major parties and the growing fascination with their traditionally smaller rivals.
Thursday night’s Q+A People’s Debate put that on full display with all seven parties in real contention for seats in the next Parliament side-by-side with no hierarchy and no special treatment for National or Labour.
There is a reason Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins are adamant a place remains for leader head-to-head debates.
It’s because the alternative would require bringing a lot more personality while having to fight to get a word in alongside leaders who are talking directly to a smaller voter base that is easier to impress.
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Opportunity’s Qiulae Wong went into the debate with fire in her belly after two days of national coverage about sexist and offensive comments made about her and her fellow candidate by New Zealand First’s Michael Laws.
She went in armed with the knowledge that every other leader she was debating was unified in their disgust and disapproval of Laws, including New Zealand First’s Shane Jones who described the diatribe as “reckless and foolish“.
Greens’ co-leader Chloe Swarbrick was riding high on multiple polls putting her party in record-winning territory.
Te Pāti Māori MP Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke was a late sub for her colleague Oriini Kaipara, and despite the lack of warning or prep time she held her own and constantly brought every question back to an issue she was more comfortable speaking to.
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For the coalition partners ACT and New Zealand First it was about pointing out where together the coalition had made good change while simultaneously distinguishing themselves.
Jones played his usual agitator role roaring about fast-track and mining, but also made a considered and impassioned case for greater access to respite care for whanau affected by methamphetamine addiction, and amnesty for families wanting to report it.
ACT leader David Seymour looked equal parts alarmed and hopeful when he realised he and Swarbrick were singing from the same songsheet on how best to handle a teenage social media ban, proving even the most opposite ends of the political spectrum can live in harmony.
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While Labour’s Kieran McAnulty brought the fun to the debate with his ramblings about Homer Simpson and his journey from smoking to vaping to nicotene gum, he found it almost impossible to insert himself into the debate when he wanted to.
Instead he was left answering questions he wasn’t so schooled up on that moderator Jack Tame directed at him, and failed to muscle in on the ones he had talking points for.
Likewise National’s Nicola Willis struggled to fire.
Despite being the most senior politician on show, Willis seemed to have her back up from the get-go.
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The first question out of the blocks was how “political leaders can lead by example and show respect for differing views and work together to unite New Zealand”.
Willis used it to take another whack at Swarbrick, a tactic the National Party has deployed relentlessly in recent weeks.
Despite being a skillful debater with political nous, it is completely plausible Willis’ misfire was simply her realisation the sun might well set on her time as a minister and MP in two days’ time.
McAnulty and Willis had the toughest jobs on Thursday night trying to sell a vision to a much broader church than any of the other parties.
They’re also not able to make the same sweeping promises and declarations that smaller parties often get away with.
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But even in a format where there aren’t seven people on the stage competing for less than 90 minutes of airtime, the two major parties haven’t been convincing in their vision or plan to lift out of crisis those doing it the toughest.
Luxon and Hipkins have had three opportunities to do that in the leader debates in recent weeks but based on polling neither party has been rewarded for their efforts.
On the eve of the election the polls remain close as ever, and any one of many variables could tip the balance of which parties could negotiate the next government.
The defining moment of this election could end up being Laws’ inability to keep his thoughts to himself.
His misogynistic meltdown could give Opportunity the numbers to decide the next government.
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The chief executive of the Parliamentary Service is confident there will be enough room to accommodate the increased number of MPs and their staff coming into Parliament.
On current numbers, up to 131 MPs could be sitting in the Chamber following the election, brought on by a record overhang result.
Clerk of the House of Representatives Dr David Wilson told the Spinoff that currently the debating chamber had enough chairs to seat 124 MPs – including the Speaker of the House – and work was being done to accommodate more by altering the seating arrangement.
In a statement, Parliamentary Service chief executive Rafael Gonzalez-Montero said planning for a larger Parliament had been going for “some time”.
“Now that the election results have confirmed an increase to the number of members we are looking at several options.
“We are confident we will be able to accommodate all members within the Chamber.”
VNP / Phil Smith
Gonzalez-Montero said office accommodation for members and their staff would be “stretched” for a short time, but the new Members’ Building was only a few months away from “practical completion”.
That building – located behind Parliament – was due to be ready to occupy in April next year and had capacity to accommodate around 30 backbench MPs.
“All members should be in fit-for-purpose accommodation from that point,” Gonzalez-Montero said.
Following the 2023 election, 123 MPs sat in the Chamber – a record number at the time. That decreased to 122 following the resignation of National MP Judith Collins.
Collins held the seat of Papakura and stepped down in May and Parliament voted against holding a by-election because it was too close to the election.
The election result also meant high-ranking National Party MPs like Chris Bishop, Paul Goldsmith, Nicola Willis and Gerry Brownlee – Speaker of the House and an MP for 30 years – would likely not make it back into Parliament.
Only resigning or retiring MPs were permitted to give a valedictory speech meaning none of them would get the chance to give a valedictory statement.
Asked if their would be special allowances for valedictories, Wilson said in a statement that normally only MPs were allowed to speak in the House but the House could suspend its own rules or temporarily alter them.
“It could do so to allow former members to address the House.”
Wilson said no such arrangements could be made until the next Parliament opened and members sworn in.
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