The Reserve Bank is set to deliver a 25 basis point rise to OCR to 2.75 percent
Economists and financial markets overwhelmingly expect a rate rise
Attention will be on the content and tone of statement, and forecast track for the OCR
The RBNZ to repeat reducing stimulus, not tapping the brakes
Fall in oil prices, improved consumer and business sentiment point to a recovery, despite weak labour market
Most agree there is a need to get on top of 4.1 percent inflation, although a minority argue the economy needs more help
At least one more OCR rise is expected this year, probably in December, and couple of times in the first half of 2027
Decision due 2pm
A second consecutive rise in the Reserve Bank’s (RBNZ) benchmark interest rate this afternoon looks a foregone conclusion as falls in oil prices lift hopes that inflation has peaked, and economic recovery is about to resume.
Economists and financial markets are almost unanimous in picking the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will raise the official cash rate (OCR) after July’s first step on the tightening path.
Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold said there had not been that much difference between what has happened to the economy and what the RBNZ was expecting back in its May forecasts.
“It’s possible the RBNZ’s view won’t have shifted that much. We tend to think there won’t be much of a shift in the RBNZ’s OCR
forecasts given the significant uncertainties at present.”
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said recent inflation indicators had been more benign than expected, while other data – such as growth, job creation, business and consumer confidence – suggested the economy might not be as weak as expected.
She said taken all together it pointed to getting the OCR back to a neutral level in an orderly fashion.
“It makes sense for the RBNZ to continue along the path of getting the OCR back closer to neutral (3 percent) in the face of upside risks to inflation and a starting point north of the (1-3 percent) target band.”
What next ?
The closest scrutiny will be on the indicative track for the OCR, with financial markets split between October and December.
Some have questioned whether the RBNZ would want to raise in October, just a couple weeks before the election, or wait until its final meeting in early December, or perhaps raise in both meetings.
“In a world of such extreme uncertainty, flexibility is very valuable. An OCR track that leaves optionality regarding the October meeting seems sensible.”
The MPC’s rate track in May implied the OCR being raised to at least 3.25 percent by the middle of next year, and there are some forecasters who see the OCR needing to be raised towards 4 percent as the economy grows.
Dissenter – growth is beautiful
The loudest dissenting voice remained Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr, who has been vocally calling on the RBNZ all year to back off rate rises to let the economy get off its knees and grow.
“Growth solves many problems, and enabling growth is a bold, but beautiful move.
“Inflation is not a big problem… There’s no need to hike rates aggressively to restrain what is already restrained.”
A member of the Institute of Economic Research’s (NZIER) “shadow monetary policy board”, Kelly Gupwell of environmental company Boffa Miskell, was inclined to Kerr’s view.
“Inflation remains a concern; however, the recovery still feels uneven and the effects of previous rate increases are continuing to work through the economy.”
“I’d like to see stronger evidence that inflation pressures are becoming embedded before supporting another increase.”
An expert on family violence says it is indefensible Family Court proceedings were excluded from the government’s inquiry into the Tom Phillips case.
She says the government should be looking at reinstating protective mechanisms that were stripped out of the Care of Children Act in 2014, and she is “a little sympathetic” to police, with a caveat that she doesn’t usually say that.
“It’s just really hard for me to know whether we should be stringing them up by their toenails or not when we just don’t know what came out of the Family Court.”
Phillips was shot dead by police a year ago, after nearly four years on the run with his children.
Government ministers apologised on Tuesday after the damning inquiry found multiple failings by authorities including information sharing and following up certain leads.
Oranga Tamariki and police have admitted errors, although police dispute the inquiry’s finding that agencies working together could have prevented the children’s disappearance or brought them back sooner.
University of Auckland associate law professor Carrie Leonetti told RNZ the principal judge of the Family Court court could have opened its files to the inquiry, and although such files would be sensitive they could have been redacted from public view.
“The inquiry starts four years too late,” she said.
“Tom Phillips had court ordered care of the children from 2019 at least, and was given court ordered care of the children back, it appears, in October 2021 after the first abduction.
“The inquiry makes very clear that Oranga Tamariki had… very limited involvement with Tom Phillips and the children before 2021… we’re starting the movie half-way through.”
Leonetti said the children’s mother’s concerns were not taken seriously partly because of her Family Court dispute with Phillips.
“It’s pretty clear that these agencies brushed her concerns off … It’s well established in the social science literature that there’s just this pervasive societal myth that women fabricate claims of domestic violence for some kind of tactical purpose in custody proceedings.
“And I think it’s even worse for the Phillips kids’ mother because she’s Māori… a Māori woman trying to get the police and Oranga Tamariki to take her Pākehā ex-husband’s threat to their children seriously.
“He made threats to her at the time of their separation in 2017 that he was going to take the kids and not let her see them again, and he he made those threats to third parties that he was going to take off with the kids and go bush.”
She said there was a “weird sort of hot potato problem”, where police, Oranga Tamariki and the Family Court would defer responsibility for a case to whichever of the three was approached first.
“If people go first to the Family Court and they award care to the person, then I think Oranga Tamariki and the police say to themselves, ‘well, how dangerous can he be?'”
She said the report seemed to indicate police and Oranga Tamariki had made errors in the investigation or passing on information, but without the details from the Family Court “it’s like we’re looking at this mosaic with half of it blacked out”.
Phillips may never have had unsupervised care of the children in 2019 and 2021 had the “Bristol clauses” that required courts to ensure a child’s safety before granting custody in domestic violence-related cases not been scrapped under the John Key government in 2014.
“You go to Family Court, you lose custody of your kids to the perpetrator. You go to the police, they seem to write a lot of reports but not take a lot of action. You go to Oranga Tamariki and they roll your eyes and think you’re a disgrunted ex-wife.”
However, she said police may be right to say the situation may not have ended differently “if they had done everything right, but the Family Court and Oranga Tamariki still failed”.
“We actually need all of these agencies to get it right as often as possible to have an appropriate safety net.”
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade says police are supporting the families of five New Zealanders who remain missing after August’s catastrophic flash flood at the Nepal-China border.
A massive flash flood, believed to have been triggered by a glacial collapse, tore through a Himalayan valley on 26 August, burying villages.
The disaster killed more than 1300 people, with at least 5000 others unaccounted for, according to latest reports on both sides of the border.
In New Zealand, community groups have raised more than $200,000 for the flood victims, according to former honorary consul for Nepal Dinesh Khadka.
“I’m so proud of the Indian community here who … supported us, saying it is not a Nepal problem but our problem,” Khadka said.
He said about 80 percent of the donations had come from New Zealand’s Indian community.
A fundraising dinner was organised by the New Zealand Nepal Society at the Freemans Bay Community Centre in Auckland last week.
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Last week, the Nepali community raised $100,000 through a fundraising dinner at the Freemans Bay Community Centre in Auckland.
The Central Sikh Association donated $50,000 to Nepal that same night.
Earlier this month, Gurdwara Shri Dashmesh Darbaar Sahib in Papatoetoe pledged $15,000, which was matched by the New Zealand Indian Central Association.
Shiv Mandir in Manurewa donated $4000, while Manurewa Local Board member Marshal Ahluwalia and National Party Manurewa candidate Ghouse Majeed donated $7500.
Khadka said the Federation of Islamic Associations of New Zealand had pledged $5000, which would be directly deposited into Nepal’s Prime Minister’s Disaster Relief Fund.
Other fundraising events included a dosa event in Māngere organised by Thiru Subramaniyar Aalayam on 5 September, and a fundraising dinner organised by the Nepal-New Zealand Friendship Society of Canterbury in Rolleston on 12 September.
A similar dinner was organised by the Waikato Indian Association and Nepal-New Zealand Waikato Friendship Society in Hamilton on 9 September, while the Taranaki Nepalese Community is planning a fundraising dinner in New Plymouth on 26 September.
He said the fundraising was a temporary effort to support people who had lost everything in the floods.
“Nepal will take decades to rebuild and whatever we raise now will go to the people who are in most need right now,” he said.
Khadka said more fundraising events were being planned across New Zealand.
Next week, Wellington Mutamizh Sangam’s youth wing will hold a youth festival to raise funds for Nepal, while the Indian Film Festival in October has also pledged to support fundraising efforts for the country, with a Nepali film included in its programme.
Khadka said the response had shown him how much New Zealanders cared about Nepal.
“Wherever we go, I see New Zealanders approaching me and asking how they can support Nepal,” he said.
“That makes me proud of New Zealand and how lucky we are to be called New Zealanders.”
Khadka also warned that some organisations were using the disaster to make money.
“It is very sad to see that there are organisations who are raising money but it doesn’t reach the Prime Minister’s Disaster Relief Fund, so my request to people who are donating their hard-earned money is to make sure that you donate through the right channels,” he said.
Dinesh Khadka is leading fundraising efforts for Nepal flood victims in New Zealand.
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Khadka said he was receiving regular updates from Nepal Police, who were doing their best to recover bodies and search for survivors.
“More than 1400 bodies [have] already [been] found but they’re looking through the rubble and buildings to find more than 5000 bodies or even survivors,” he said.
Khadka said he did not have an update on the missing New Zealanders.
Five New Zealanders remain missing following the deadly flash floods: Dejan Kuzmic, Shweta Mhatre, Mihir Patel, Kinnari Patel and Suhasini Reddy.
More than 300 foreign nationals have been rescued, according to an update from Nepal’s National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority.
No New Zealanders have been included in that number.
RNZ understands Mhatre and Kuzmic were part of the Isha Foundation’s pilgrimage, and Sadhguru had previously said two New Zealanders were missing from his trekking group.
Meanwhile, Reddy’s family has called on rescuers not to stop searching for the 44-year-old after conflicting reports about her status emerged online.
Reddy’s brother Rajeev and his wife Lauren urged people to keep searching for survivors in a Facebook post several weeks ago.
A spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade said New Zealand’s consular response team in Kathmandu was engaged with local authorities and the Nepalese Government.
“However, challenges on the ground mean that new, verified information will continue to take time to emerge.”
A spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade said New Zealand had extended an offer of technical expertise to aid Nepal’s response effort in addition to humanitarian assistance worth $3.5 million to support the humanitarian response.
The Warriors will need to take the hard path to the NRL Grand Final, having lost to the Dolphins in their qualifier at Go Media Mount Smart Stadium.
A victory in week one would have seen the Warriors take a week off and advance straight to the preliminiary finals in week three.
Instead they’ll take on the Newscastle Knights in a must-win elimination final on Sunday.
Here’s who plays who next:
Week two: Semi-finals
The teams that lost their qualifying finals get another chance. They play the winners of the elimination finals in two sudden death games.
The two winners would then move on to the preliminary finals.
Cronulla Sharks v Sydney Roosters, Saturday, 9.50pm at Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Warriors v Newcastle Knights, Sunday 6.05pm at Eden Park, Auckland
Warriors boss Cameron George is expecting Sunday’s game to sell out, in what he describes as an international for his side.
“It’s us versus Australia. So the more people we get there, the better New Zealand will be.
“There are 17 teams in this comp and we’re the only one from here so it’s us against them. This is our New Zealand grand final in the NRL and it’s pretty special.”
Warriors club members can buy tickets from midday Monday with general public tickets going on sale Tuesday.
If the Warriors win against the Knights this weekend, they’ll go on to play the Panthers.
Andrew Cornaga/www.photosport.nz
Week three: Preliminary final
The four remaining teams play in the preliminary finals.
The Panthers and Dolphins have advanced straight to the prelims where they’ll meet the winners of the semi finals.
If the Warriors win against the Knights this weekend, they’ll go on to play the Panthers.
The winner of the Sharks v Roosters match this weekend will face the Dolphins.