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Christopher Luxon’s leadership on the line as he fronts do-or-die caucus meeting
Christopher Luxon’s leadership is on the line as he prepares to front a do-or-die meeting with his National Party caucus in Wellington on Wednesday morning.
Luxon called the urgent in-person meeting as speculation swirled he was losing his grip on the leadership.
It followed reporting by the New Zealand Herald on Monday night that National MPs had spent the day on the phones, with one confirming they had fielded “several” calls about a potential leadership change.
“There’s going to be change in the top job. It’s just a question of who is going to be it”, the Herald reported the MP to have said.
The three most likely contenders are deputy Nicola Willis, third-ranked Chris Bishop, and senior MP Erica Stanford – while Simeon Brown and Mark Mitchell could be considered for the deputy role.
Willis and Bishop publicly supported Luxon on Tuesday, but when Stanford arrived at Wellington Airport she did not say a word to reporters – even when they directly asked her whether she backed her leader.
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Luxon seeks to silence agitators – again
Luxon did not take long to respond to murmurings of caucus disunity.
On Tuesday morning Bishop confirmed an online caucus meeting had been set for Tuesday evening, but stressed it was not unusual for that to happen during a recess week at Parliament. That meeting was later cancelled.
By early afternoon, Luxon posted on social media that he was calling his caucus to Wellington during a recess week at Parliament for a 9.30am Wednesday meeting, saying there was clearly increased speculation about his leadership.
“It is my firm belief that division and disunity are a major distraction only 90 days out from the election,” he wrote.
“I also believe this distraction is unfair to the New Zealand people, and dedicated National Party candidates, supporters and volunteers, when there is so much at stake.”
The issue needed to be resolved quickly, he said.
Stepping off the plane in Wellington later in the day, Luxon refused to talk to reporters, only saying “talk to you tomorrow … take care team”.
It is unclear whether Luxon will call a confidence vote on Wednesday, as he did just four months ago – the last time his leadership was under pressure with some of his caucus telling the media of flagging support.
He ultimately survived that vote and drew a line under it, blaming a “media soap opera” for causing a stir.
The ballot was secret, with only the scrutineers – junior whip Suze Redmayne and party president Sylvia Wood – privy to the votes.
An unconfirmed margin of 27-22 has since circulated, fuelling questions about whether he would have the numbers to survive this time around.
RNZ / Baz Macdonald
A shocker week
Fresh rumblings about rolling Luxon followed a week of poor headlines for the National leader – and a far longer stretch of dismal polling.
Luxon on Monday apologised to Rotorua Business Chamber leaders after he criticised them at an event on Friday for having a “parent-child mentality” and relying on government too much.
He also faced scrutiny about his unwillingness to reprimand his Foreign Minister Winston Peters, who had in Parliament told a Chinese-born MP Lawrence Xu-Nan to go back to his own country.
Luxon labelled that racist, and said he had a word with Peters about it, but took no further action.
The Prime Minister then had to justify using a Defence Force plane flying him home from a National Party fundraising dinner, the same day unemployment hit a record 11-year high.
On Thursday, speaking on Newstalk ZB, he made an out of the blue captain’s call to hold a referendum on MMP if he’s re-elected, which blindsided his own caucus.
A slight bump in the Taxpayers’ Union Curia poll on Friday seems not to have won Luxon much repreive.
The poll had National up 0.5 points to 31 percent and would return the coalition to power by a slim margin.
It followed multiple polls this year which had National bouncing around the high 20s to low 30s, unable to make ground.
Just last month the party was down 2.1 points in the RNZ-Reid Research poll to 28.7 percent.
On Saturday Luxon released National’s list for the upcoming election with little upset, keeping senior MPs and new talent happy with high enough spots to make it back to Parliament.
During that press conference he declared he had the full backing of his caucus.
SCREENSHOT / RNZ
Most MPs pledge support for Luxon, Stanford stays silent
Most MPs arriving in the capital on Tuesday night were quick to throw their support behind Luxon.
But notably, Stanford did not say a word to gathered reporters.
Asked whether she had confidence in Luxon, Stanford did not reply.
The party’s chief whip Stuart Smith and senior MP Gerry Brownlee also declined to say whether they backed their leader.
rnz
The chief executive of the Parliamentary Service is confident there will be enough room to accommodate the increased number of MPs and their staff coming into Parliament.
On current numbers, up to 131 MPs could be sitting in the Chamber following the election, brought on by a record overhang result.
Clerk of the House of Representatives Dr David Wilson told the Spinoff that currently the debating chamber had enough chairs to seat 124 MPs – including the Speaker of the House – and work was being done to accommodate more by altering the seating arrangement.
In a statement, Parliamentary Service chief executive Rafael Gonzalez-Montero said planning for a larger Parliament had been going for “some time”.
“Now that the election results have confirmed an increase to the number of members we are looking at several options.
“We are confident we will be able to accommodate all members within the Chamber.”
VNP / Phil Smith
Gonzalez-Montero said office accommodation for members and their staff would be “stretched” for a short time, but the new Members’ Building was only a few months away from “practical completion”.
That building – located behind Parliament – was due to be ready to occupy in April next year and had capacity to accommodate around 30 backbench MPs.
“All members should be in fit-for-purpose accommodation from that point,” Gonzalez-Montero said.
Following the 2023 election, 123 MPs sat in the Chamber – a record number at the time. That decreased to 122 following the resignation of National MP Judith Collins.
Collins held the seat of Papakura and stepped down in May and Parliament voted against holding a by-election because it was too close to the election.
The election result also meant high-ranking National Party MPs like Chris Bishop, Paul Goldsmith, Nicola Willis and Gerry Brownlee – Speaker of the House and an MP for 30 years – would likely not make it back into Parliament.
Only resigning or retiring MPs were permitted to give a valedictory speech meaning none of them would get the chance to give a valedictory statement.
Asked if their would be special allowances for valedictories, Wilson said in a statement that normally only MPs were allowed to speak in the House but the House could suspend its own rules or temporarily alter them.
“It could do so to allow former members to address the House.”
Wilson said no such arrangements could be made until the next Parliament opened and members sworn in.
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