Analysis – National MPs say the coalition is stable, even as they criticise Foreign Minister Winston Peters for releasing emails without notifying the prime minister.

It is the latest in a series of fractures between the coalition parties that have been slowly expanding into cracks.

The question is whether those widening divisions can be sustained right up until the election, even as the parties jostle for dominance in a worsening global economic environment and against an opposition making gains in the polls.

Finance Minister and National deputy Nicola Willis had confidence in the coalition’s stability – but it came with a caveat: “As long as people uphold the principles of the coalition agreement.”

National’s campaign chair Simeon Brown said the coalition was in a good space, “but ultimately our message is that Mr Peters should not be putting politics ahead of the national interest. That’s very clear”.

Former National campaign chair Chris Bishop said the coalition was “a very stable thing, everyone said it would fall apart within a year and here we are six months out from the election and we’re getting things done for New Zealand”.

Former National campaign chair Chris Bishop. Photo: RNZ / Nick Monro

Mark Mitchell chuckled, saying the coalition was “fine”. Tama Potaka called it “solid”.

But with the cracks spreading, that solidity has been called into question with increasing frequency.

Here’s a look back at the last two weeks where it became clear the election had well and truly begun.

Communications breakdown: Emails and the national interest

Luxon’s office on Thursday said he had told Peters he expected better political judgement from him during a meeting in Peters’ Beehive office the night before.

In an extraordinary slapdown, Luxon said Peters “acknowledged he had made a mistake” by releasing emails showing foreign affairs staff pushing back against the idea of expressing “explicit public support” for the US attack on Iran.

Peters’ office believed doing so would be “imprudent” and “counter to New Zealand’s national interests”, but Luxon’s office said this mischaracterised the views of the prime minister, who was seeking to test New Zealand’s stance against those of Australia and Canada.

By releasing the emails without consulting the prime minister’s office, Peters had “clearly put politics ahead of the national interest”, Luxon’s office said.

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters. Photo: RNZ / Mark Papalii

Peters admits he should have consulted the PM about the release, but has pushed back on suggestions the emails should not have been released – arguing transparency is, you guessed it, in the national interest.

“In the end, I made the mistake,” Peters said in the afternoon. “We carry the can in our office, we don’t blame others, but funnily enough a couple of my staff are going to be in a training session this afternoon on the matter.”

Willis said releasing the emails without consulting was inconsistent with the no surprises principle and a breach of good faith, calling Peters “very, very confused”, and raising the prospect of that happening again in coalition negotiations.

“The problem with Winston Peters is you never know what you’re going to get.”

Despite his own confidence in the coalition’s stability, Brown said Peters “considers himself a statesman – well the reality is he should operate in a way that respects the office of the prime minister”.

Confidence in caucus and in coalition

It all follows another stain on the coalition agreement, with Peters claiming Luxon’s decision to call a vote of confidence in himself was a breach of that same ‘no surprises’ principle.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon faces questions about his leadership. Photo: RNZ / Kim Baker Wilson

National MPs met for more than two hours last Tuesday after poor polling and increasing instances of National MPs leaking anonymously to the media.

Asked on Morning Report if Luxon should have warned him, Peters said it “would have been wise to – yes, of course”.

He said it was an “unprecedented” move from a sitting prime minister, and there would be “consequences”. It didn’t take long for his coalition partners from National to hit back.

Within the hour, Willis launched a broadside, saying Peters was “mischief-making” and he had a “track record of picking Labour over National, and that’s the risk you run with him”.

National MP Nicola Willis. Photo: RNZ / Mark Papalii

Luxon also lashed out, using his weekly interview on Newstalk ZB’s The Country to call his foreign minister out for installing Jacinda Ardern as prime minister.

He said had not needed to inform Peters of his confidence vote, because it was not important enough.

That afternoon, ministers on their way to Question Time declared the coalition as strong as ever – with Peters claiming it was as stable as a “three-legged stool”.

Free trade disagreement

Luxon’s criticisms of Peters on The Country also came with a sting in the tail, saying he was trying to “scaremonger” with “anti-immigrant” rhetoric – a reference to Peters’ stance on the free trade agreement with India.

The foreign minister in October had announced New Zealand First’s opposition to the deal just minutes before Luxon and Trade Minister Todd McClay were set to announce it had been finalised.

He has continued to rail against the deal’s investment and immigration provisions, with his deputy Shane Jones in April going further – warning he and his party were “never going to agree with a butter chicken tsunami coming to New Zealand”.

Questioned directly about whether that was racist, Luxon refused to say – only going so far as calling it “unhelpful” and that was certainly true for McClay, who was questioned about it by Indian media when he went to New Delhi to sign the deal this week.

Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal and New Zealand’s Trade Minister Todd McClay sign the free-trade agreement. Photo: Supplied

With Peters’ criticisms of the confidence vote still fresh, Willis – in her weekly head-to-head with Labour on Morning Report – denounced the comment and said that was who Labour was “choosing to get into bed” with.

Never mind Labour having gone further than Luxon by calling it racist, and National being currently in coalition with NZ First, Willis has continued with this line – using her general debate speech on Wednesday to talk up the deal, and talk down New Zealand First.

“New Zealand First are on the wrong side of history on this one,” she said. “What we really need to call out in this House – and I want to acknowledge Marama Davidson for doing the same – is the race-based scaremongering that New Zealand First have indulged in.”

She went on to quote Jones, warning in a long preamble that it “will offend this House, it offended me … it has offended New Zealanders of Indian descent up and down this country”.

“Shame on you, Shane Jones. I enjoy working with you around the Cabinet table, but that kind of race-based rhetoric has no place in New Zealand politics,” she said.

New Zealand First MP Shane Jones. Photo: RNZ / Mark Papalii

Crossing the floor when the Cabinet room won’t do

Wednesday night also brought policy disputes into sharp relief, with a series of opposition party member’s bills that managed to find support from some in the government benches – but not others.

First among them was the Modern Slavery Bill, a joint effort between Labour’s Camilla Belich and National’s Greg Fleming, who said the ACT Party had stopped it going through Cabinet and becoming a government bill.

The topic was identified by Luxon in 2022 as something he would “march in the streets” for.

Another bill – from Labour’s Arena Williams – aimed to make transferring money overseas cheaper by requiring banks to be transparent about fees, got both ACT and NZ First on board.

Labour’s Arena Williams. Photo: VNP / Phil Smith

National was the only party to oppose it, saying there was no need for it because other reforms were making progress on opening up the financial system.

And Green MP Kahurangi Carter’s bill aiming to prevent overdoses by giving amnesty for low-level drug offences to those who call in a suspected overdose or adverse drug reaction passed with ACT’s support – but not National or NZ First.

There was another member’s bill that was on the list for Wednesday but the House did not have time to get to which would ban social media for under-16s, in line with Australia’s approach.

It’s not something the coalition is progressing, with ACT opposing the idea and its MP Parmjeet Parmar complaining a select committee inquiry on it was “predetermined”.

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