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National, Luxon fall in latest poll, coalition trails left bloc

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Analysis: A new poll showing National sitting on just 30 percent, and the coalition unable to govern, has set the stage for a crucial week in Christopher Luxon’s prime ministership.

This result is National’s worst in the 1News-Verian poll since Luxon became leader in November 2021.

Labour is up five points on 37 percent, while National’s 30 is down four points since February.

For the other parties in the coalition, New Zealand First is steady on 10 percent, while Act has dropped two points to seven.

On the other side of the house the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are both unchanged on eleven and two, respectively.

It gives the centre-left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori the seats needed to govern with 66 compared to the coalition’s 58, if an election was held today.

Luxon’s personal favourability has taken a decent hit in this poll too, down four points to 16 percent, while Labour’s Chris Hipkins is down one to 19 percent.

The results follow several polls in recent weeks showing National on about 29 percent – the party’s official result in Sunday night’s poll was 29.7, but rounded up to 30.

The prime minister told TVNZ on the back of those results he hadn’t considered resigning.

This latest poll headache comes after a torrid Friday for the prime minister where he was again forced to defend his leadership.

Poor polling, including record- low personal favourability, has been dogging Luxon for months.

A NZ Herald story on Friday morning reported senior whip Stuart Smith tried and failed to get hold of Luxon before Easter to warn him there were rumblings about his leadership from within caucus.

The article reported multiple anonymous sources saying Luxon had evaded Smith, despite the pair both being at Parliament during a sitting week.

RNZ has confirmed with a senior Beehive source that meeting was attempted by Smith, but both Luxon and his office have denied it.

Luxon insisted at a media conference on Friday that he had had the “numbers” and the “full support” of his caucus. He also maintained the coalition could still govern on public polling – not the case however after Sunday’s poll, nor was it the case in RNZ-Reid Research’s poll last month where the result was a hung parliament.

The 1News-Verian poll was in the field until Wednesday, so didn’t capture Friday’s problems for the prime minister.

It has been two weeks since the caucus met at Parliament due to the school holiday recess, and that support will be tested when they gather in Wellington on Tuesday morning.

Luxon will also have to explain, if asked, why he publicly denied the Smith reports.

In recent weeks it’s not only National MPs who have been leaking their unhappiness with the direction of travel the party is heading in, but staff have also been unhappy about how they’re being treated.

Some staff feel they were a victim of a point-scoring reshuffle by Luxon that has seen a number off them “evented”, which means they have lost their jobs and could potentially apply for a new one, but not necessarily in the office they have been working in.

Other staff have been frustrated with Luxon’s unwillingness to listen, take advice, or make change.

Both MPs and staff have expressed the prime minister is getting worse, not better, at public appearances and media interviews, which doesn’t bode well heading into a tightly-contested election campaign.

In amongst that, there has been speculation MPs are keen for change, and Chris Bishop has spent weeks denying he is lining himself up as leader.

He spent the weekend batting away suggestions he was planning to roll Luxon.

At a media conference on Saturday in his Hutt South electorate, in response to questions about his relationship with the prime minister, Bishop confirmed he has confidence in Christopher Luxon but declined to discuss private conversations.

“The Prime Minister and I talk all the time… but I’m not going to get into what I’ve said to him or what he’s said to me recently.”

“Look, I’m just head down, bum up on my portfolios and also working hard locally as well,” he told reporters.

On Sunday in a TVNZ Q+A interview, Bishop denied he was plotting to take the leadership from Luxon.

He said comments that have made their way into the media about flagging support for Luxon and unhappiness in the caucus were “unhelpful”.

Bishop denied any knowledge of Smith’s attempts to warn Luxon about his caucus support, and told Q+A people shouldn’t be “talking out of school” because it’s not the “right way to do things”.

“That is unhelpful and untidy and indicates that the National Party is focused on ourselves rather than focused on the country.”

Bishop said those people in caucus who had spoken to the NZ Herald, who broke the story about Smith on Friday, were clearly “unhappy and untidy”.

“I am prepared to accept that. That is sort of a statement of fact, I am not going to deny the reality.”

The transport and housing minister said he wasn’t aware of anyone in the caucus who thought Luxon shouldn’t be leader, and said he didn’t believe the prime minister was dragging down the party’s performance.

A fresh poll result showing National would lose 12 MPs if that result was replicated on election day might give those at risk of losing their job plenty to think about ahead of Tuesday’s gathering.

RNZ

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Police say person who fired gun at officers still at large

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Police say a person who fired a gun at officers in Napier is still at large.

Eastern District Commander Superintendent Joel Lamb said Police tried to stop a vehicle in the Pirimai Area at about 10pm on Tuesday.

He said someone in the back seat pointed what was presumed to be a firearm at officers pursuing the vehicle.

“Staff have then heard two distinct gunshots as the firearm was discharged.

“Fortunately, neither of our officers were injured, and the patrol vehicle did not sustain any damage.”

He said hours later, the vehicle was seen travelling north on the Waikato Expressway towards Auckland.

Police seized the vehicle at an address in Manurewa, but they had not found the alleged offender.

Lamb said people who lived at the Manurewa address were engaging with Police.

He said Eastern District and Counties Manukau Police were making enquiries.

“Presenting a firearm at a Police officer is a serious escalation that puts our staff and the wider community at risk. This behaviour is entirely unacceptable.

“We are taking this incident extremely seriously and will be pursuing all lines of enquiry to locate the offender and hold them accountable.”

Police asked anyone who witnessed the incident to contact Police on 105 or online using the reference number 261111/3764.

Information could also be provided anonymously via Crime Stoppers on 0800 555 111.

rnz

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New Zealand sides named for RLWC finals

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The players tasked with ending Australia’s Rugby League World Cup dominance have been named.

The Kiwis and Kiwi Ferns have announced their squads for this Sunday’s World Cup finals in Brisbane.

Both sides are chasing their first titles since 2008, and both are looking to end their opponents run of three crowns in a row.

“Our Kiwi Ferns have been so dominant in years gone by, and we want to bring dominance back to this jersey, so I think it will be a case of who wants it more,” said co-captain Georgia Hale of the impending clash.

The Kiwis get a major boost for the final as they welcome back Ronaldo Mulitalo after he served a one-match ban for a high tackle against Fiji Bati.

Mulitalo replaces Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, who moves to the six-man bench, which again includes utility Te Maire Martin, middle forwards Naufahu Whyte, Erin Clark and Xavier Willison plus fullback Keano Kini.

Loose forward Joseph Tapine will make his 30th Test appearance in a familiar pack again, including second-rowers Isaiah Papali’i and Briton Nikora, and props James Fisher-Harris and Moses Leota.

Winger Jamayne Isaako is on the cusp of claiming the New Zealand record for most Test points.

His five goals against Tonga lifted his career points tally to 225 – level with Shaun Johnson – while centre Casey McLean goes into the final with 16 tries in just eight Tests.

Fisher-Harris will again captain the team.

Fullback Ponga said the goal of the group was clear.

“We have high expectations around what we want to achieve, and obviously winning a world Cup is one of them.”

Meanwhile, Ricky Henry has selected a settled side to take on the Jillaroos, led by their lethal centre combination of Stacey Waaka and Mele Hufanga.

Veteran Apii Nicholls takes the number one jersey, Leianne Tufuga and Mackenzie Wiki on the wings.

Henry has stuck with his halves pairing of Chantay Kiria-Ratu and Raecene McGregor with Alexis Tauaneai, Georgia Hale and Otesa Pule up front.

Rounding out the starting pack is Shaniece Monschau, Kaiyah Atai, and Angelina Teakaraanga-Katoa.

“We have been building well throughout the tournament; we understand the Jillaroos side, and will give it our all to make New Zealand proud this weekend,” said Henry.

RLWC Finals:

Kiwi Ferns vs Jillaroos- 6.10pm

Kiwis vs Kangaroos – 9.35pm

Sunday November 15

Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Live blog updates on RNZ

Kiwi Ferns:

1. Apii Nicholls 2. Leianne Tufuga 3. Mele Hufanga 4. Stacey Waaka 5. Mackenzie Wiki 6. Chantay Kiria-Ratu 7. Raecene McGregor 8. Alexis Tauaneai 9. Georgia Hale 10. Otesa Pule 11. Shaniece Monschau 12. Kaiyah Atai 13. Angelina Teakaraanga-Katoa.

Interchange: 14. Ashleigh Quinlan 15. Annessa Biddle 16. Shannon Mato 17. Ivana Lauitiiti.

Reserves: 18. Brooke Anderson 19. Zahara Temara 20. Brianna Clark 21. Abigail Roache 22. Tenika Willison.

Kiwis:

1. Kalyn Ponga, 2. Jamayne Isaako, 3. Dane Gagai, 4. Casey McLean, 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo, 6. Kodi Nikorima, 7. Jahrome Hughes, 8. James Fisher-Harris (c), 9. Jeremy Marshall-King, 10. Moses Leota, 11. Isaiah Papali’i, 12. Briton Nikora, 13. Joseph Tapine (v/c).

Interchange: 14. Te Maire Martin, 15. Naufahu Whyte, 16. Erin Clark, 17. Xavier Willison.

Reserves: 18. Keano Kini, 19. Phoenix Crossland, 20. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, 21. Scott Sorensen, 22. Leo Thompson.

rnz

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Parliamentary Service working on extra chairs and offices for increased number of MPs

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The chief executive of the Parliamentary Service is confident there will be enough room to accommodate the increased number of MPs and their staff coming into Parliament.

On current numbers, up to 131 MPs could be sitting in the Chamber following the election, brought on by a record overhang result.

Clerk of the House of Representatives Dr David Wilson told the Spinoff that currently the debating chamber had enough chairs to seat 124 MPs – including the Speaker of the House – and work was being done to accommodate more by altering the seating arrangement.

In a statement, Parliamentary Service chief executive Rafael Gonzalez-Montero said planning for a larger Parliament had been going for “some time”.

“Now that the election results have confirmed an increase to the number of members we are looking at several options.

“We are confident we will be able to accommodate all members within the Chamber.”

Chief Executive of the Parliamentary Service Rafael Gonzalez-Montero appears before select committee.
Parliamentary Service chief executive Rafael Gonzalez-Montero.

VNP / Phil Smith

Gonzalez-Montero said office accommodation for members and their staff would be “stretched” for a short time, but the new Members’ Building was only a few months away from “practical completion”.

That building – located behind Parliament – was due to be ready to occupy in April next year and had capacity to accommodate around 30 backbench MPs.

“All members should be in fit-for-purpose accommodation from that point,” Gonzalez-Montero said.

Following the 2023 election, 123 MPs sat in the Chamber – a record number at the time. That decreased to 122 following the resignation of National MP Judith Collins.

Collins held the seat of Papakura and stepped down in May and Parliament voted against holding a by-election because it was too close to the election.

The election result also meant high-ranking National Party MPs like Chris Bishop, Paul Goldsmith, Nicola Willis and Gerry Brownlee – Speaker of the House and an MP for 30 years – would likely not make it back into Parliament.

Only resigning or retiring MPs were permitted to give a valedictory speech meaning none of them would get the chance to give a valedictory statement.

Asked if their would be special allowances for valedictories, Wilson said in a statement that normally only MPs were allowed to speak in the House but the House could suspend its own rules or temporarily alter them.

“It could do so to allow former members to address the House.”

Wilson said no such arrangements could be made until the next Parliament opened and members sworn in.

rnz

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