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What will encourage NZers to have more babies?

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More affordable and suitable housing is likely to be a better incentive to get people to have babies than “baby bonuses”, economists say.

New population data has confirmed that New Zealand will need to rely more on migration to offset an ageing population in the coming decades.

Stats NZ said on Tuesday that the estimated population of New Zealand was 5.3 million as at 30 June. The median age of women was 39 and men 37.4. In the year, the population grew by 0.7 percent.

The total fertility rate was 1.57 births per woman, marginally up from 1.55 a year earlier. The rate has been below the replacement rate of 2.1 since 2013.

Treasury earlier warned that could cause problems as the cost of an ageing population would be covered by a smaller number of working taxpayers.

In the 1970s, there were about seven people aged 15 to 64 for everyone aged 65 and over. Today there are four and in 50 years there will be about two.

Infometrics lead demographer Nick Brunsdon said it was a situation that had been “in the mail” since the 1960s.

“If the average level of migration is 30,000 a year over the next from now to eternity our population is still likely to start declining in probably the 2050s.

“Migration is the only thing that can save us but it won’t entirely save us over the long term.

“We’ve already become much more reliant on migration than we used to be but we’re going to become even more reliant on migration and even more prone to those wild swings that we get in migration.”

He said with most households needing two earners, having children was more challenging.

“That’s probably where the action is in terms of making it easier for people to leave and then re-enter the workforce – helping with that is much more effective than any kind of big cash payment, I think it would need to be quite a large cash payment to move the dial.

“Other countries have tried throwing money around as a sort of Hail Mary on that front. But the flip side is it’s cheaper to get migrants.”

The US has been reported to be looking at offering US$5000 “baby bonuses”. South Korea was paying 2 million won. China offers 3600 yuan.

But Brunsdon said that was unlikely to be the solution.

“I don’t think anyone’s going to change their plans for $5000,” Brunsdon said.

“We can look and see other countries, there are plenty through Europe that are well below 1.5, China’s at about 1.3 children per woman and no one’s managed to really avert that in a substantial way.”

He said it was a question of managing the impact. “Net migration is really, really weak. Down below 20,000 and we have a net loss of population in the 20 to 34-year-old age group. More young Kiwis are deciding to leave than come here so the challenge is going to get more acute in the coming years because if you’re losing the 20 to 34-year-olds they’re not going to be here having kids.”

Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said it would take some time before the population tipped into decline.

He said there were “push and pull” factors for the falling birth rate. “We have seen birth rates dropping worldwide, it’s not just in rich countries, either.

“As countries get richer on average, they tend to have fewer children. That’s something we see everywhere. But there is also an element of push vectors … there is a reasonable amount of evidence that unaffordability of housing affects this as well.

“It means that people form families later in life. It means they are having fewer children … the short answer is to do things that improve the lives of everyone in the country and then population trends will change as a side effect of it.”

That could mean cheaper housing and an increased variety of options to meet different stages of life, he said.

“More generally just making kind of housing development more family friendly – access to transport and things like that.”

That might not only help family size but also encourage people to stay in the country, Gordon said.

“The thing is any kind of population policy will ultimately be thwarted by the fact that people can choose to leave.

“If we do things to make it more attractive for people to stay. Then, as a byproduct to that, you will get more natural population growth. I mean, another way of putting it is there’s no point paying people to have more children if half of them leave the country when they reach adulthood anyway.”

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Police say person who fired gun at officers still at large

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Police say a person who fired a gun at officers in Napier is still at large.

Eastern District Commander Superintendent Joel Lamb said Police tried to stop a vehicle in the Pirimai Area at about 10pm on Tuesday.

He said someone in the back seat pointed what was presumed to be a firearm at officers pursuing the vehicle.

“Staff have then heard two distinct gunshots as the firearm was discharged.

“Fortunately, neither of our officers were injured, and the patrol vehicle did not sustain any damage.”

He said hours later, the vehicle was seen travelling north on the Waikato Expressway towards Auckland.

Police seized the vehicle at an address in Manurewa, but they had not found the alleged offender.

Lamb said people who lived at the Manurewa address were engaging with Police.

He said Eastern District and Counties Manukau Police were making enquiries.

“Presenting a firearm at a Police officer is a serious escalation that puts our staff and the wider community at risk. This behaviour is entirely unacceptable.

“We are taking this incident extremely seriously and will be pursuing all lines of enquiry to locate the offender and hold them accountable.”

Police asked anyone who witnessed the incident to contact Police on 105 or online using the reference number 261111/3764.

Information could also be provided anonymously via Crime Stoppers on 0800 555 111.

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New Zealand sides named for RLWC finals

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The players tasked with ending Australia’s Rugby League World Cup dominance have been named.

The Kiwis and Kiwi Ferns have announced their squads for this Sunday’s World Cup finals in Brisbane.

Both sides are chasing their first titles since 2008, and both are looking to end their opponents run of three crowns in a row.

“Our Kiwi Ferns have been so dominant in years gone by, and we want to bring dominance back to this jersey, so I think it will be a case of who wants it more,” said co-captain Georgia Hale of the impending clash.

The Kiwis get a major boost for the final as they welcome back Ronaldo Mulitalo after he served a one-match ban for a high tackle against Fiji Bati.

Mulitalo replaces Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, who moves to the six-man bench, which again includes utility Te Maire Martin, middle forwards Naufahu Whyte, Erin Clark and Xavier Willison plus fullback Keano Kini.

Loose forward Joseph Tapine will make his 30th Test appearance in a familiar pack again, including second-rowers Isaiah Papali’i and Briton Nikora, and props James Fisher-Harris and Moses Leota.

Winger Jamayne Isaako is on the cusp of claiming the New Zealand record for most Test points.

His five goals against Tonga lifted his career points tally to 225 – level with Shaun Johnson – while centre Casey McLean goes into the final with 16 tries in just eight Tests.

Fisher-Harris will again captain the team.

Fullback Ponga said the goal of the group was clear.

“We have high expectations around what we want to achieve, and obviously winning a world Cup is one of them.”

Meanwhile, Ricky Henry has selected a settled side to take on the Jillaroos, led by their lethal centre combination of Stacey Waaka and Mele Hufanga.

Veteran Apii Nicholls takes the number one jersey, Leianne Tufuga and Mackenzie Wiki on the wings.

Henry has stuck with his halves pairing of Chantay Kiria-Ratu and Raecene McGregor with Alexis Tauaneai, Georgia Hale and Otesa Pule up front.

Rounding out the starting pack is Shaniece Monschau, Kaiyah Atai, and Angelina Teakaraanga-Katoa.

“We have been building well throughout the tournament; we understand the Jillaroos side, and will give it our all to make New Zealand proud this weekend,” said Henry.

RLWC Finals:

Kiwi Ferns vs Jillaroos- 6.10pm

Kiwis vs Kangaroos – 9.35pm

Sunday November 15

Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Live blog updates on RNZ

Kiwi Ferns:

1. Apii Nicholls 2. Leianne Tufuga 3. Mele Hufanga 4. Stacey Waaka 5. Mackenzie Wiki 6. Chantay Kiria-Ratu 7. Raecene McGregor 8. Alexis Tauaneai 9. Georgia Hale 10. Otesa Pule 11. Shaniece Monschau 12. Kaiyah Atai 13. Angelina Teakaraanga-Katoa.

Interchange: 14. Ashleigh Quinlan 15. Annessa Biddle 16. Shannon Mato 17. Ivana Lauitiiti.

Reserves: 18. Brooke Anderson 19. Zahara Temara 20. Brianna Clark 21. Abigail Roache 22. Tenika Willison.

Kiwis:

1. Kalyn Ponga, 2. Jamayne Isaako, 3. Dane Gagai, 4. Casey McLean, 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo, 6. Kodi Nikorima, 7. Jahrome Hughes, 8. James Fisher-Harris (c), 9. Jeremy Marshall-King, 10. Moses Leota, 11. Isaiah Papali’i, 12. Briton Nikora, 13. Joseph Tapine (v/c).

Interchange: 14. Te Maire Martin, 15. Naufahu Whyte, 16. Erin Clark, 17. Xavier Willison.

Reserves: 18. Keano Kini, 19. Phoenix Crossland, 20. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, 21. Scott Sorensen, 22. Leo Thompson.

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Parliamentary Service working on extra chairs and offices for increased number of MPs

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The chief executive of the Parliamentary Service is confident there will be enough room to accommodate the increased number of MPs and their staff coming into Parliament.

On current numbers, up to 131 MPs could be sitting in the Chamber following the election, brought on by a record overhang result.

Clerk of the House of Representatives Dr David Wilson told the Spinoff that currently the debating chamber had enough chairs to seat 124 MPs – including the Speaker of the House – and work was being done to accommodate more by altering the seating arrangement.

In a statement, Parliamentary Service chief executive Rafael Gonzalez-Montero said planning for a larger Parliament had been going for “some time”.

“Now that the election results have confirmed an increase to the number of members we are looking at several options.

“We are confident we will be able to accommodate all members within the Chamber.”

Chief Executive of the Parliamentary Service Rafael Gonzalez-Montero appears before select committee.
Parliamentary Service chief executive Rafael Gonzalez-Montero.

VNP / Phil Smith

Gonzalez-Montero said office accommodation for members and their staff would be “stretched” for a short time, but the new Members’ Building was only a few months away from “practical completion”.

That building – located behind Parliament – was due to be ready to occupy in April next year and had capacity to accommodate around 30 backbench MPs.

“All members should be in fit-for-purpose accommodation from that point,” Gonzalez-Montero said.

Following the 2023 election, 123 MPs sat in the Chamber – a record number at the time. That decreased to 122 following the resignation of National MP Judith Collins.

Collins held the seat of Papakura and stepped down in May and Parliament voted against holding a by-election because it was too close to the election.

The election result also meant high-ranking National Party MPs like Chris Bishop, Paul Goldsmith, Nicola Willis and Gerry Brownlee – Speaker of the House and an MP for 30 years – would likely not make it back into Parliament.

Only resigning or retiring MPs were permitted to give a valedictory speech meaning none of them would get the chance to give a valedictory statement.

Asked if their would be special allowances for valedictories, Wilson said in a statement that normally only MPs were allowed to speak in the House but the House could suspend its own rules or temporarily alter them.

“It could do so to allow former members to address the House.”

Wilson said no such arrangements could be made until the next Parliament opened and members sworn in.

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