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Donald Trump’s tariff trade war could spell trouble for NZ, experts say

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US President Donald Trump has introduced 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada, and a 10 percent tariff on China – claiming they’re meant to stop drugs and undocumented immigrants.

Sense Partners economist John Ballingall told Morning Report’s Corin Dann the move could spark a potential retaliatory trade war between the nations, spelling bad news for New Zealand exports.

“The larger concern for New Zealand is that Trump’s actions here lead to retaliation, which we’re already seeing from Canada, Mexico and China, and that that blows up into a full-blown trade war.

“When that happens, you’ll see global GDP growth go down, and that means lower demand for all of the things that New Zealand exports.”

He acknowledged there are possible upsides in the short term. As dairy products going into Canada become more expensive. This could potentially open up new opportunities for New Zealand.

“I don’t want to paint this as something which is great for New Zealand. The medium-term and longer-term consequences are pretty worrying.”

Especially, he said, if the scope of Trump’s tariff tactics widens to include Europe.

“Europe’s already talking about how it might retaliate. We know the EU does this pretty effectively. It’s got a list of products that it would counter-punch with.

“So again, it’s not hard to see this skill heading relatively quickly into something much more concerning to New Zealand.”

But while the actions of the US President have incensed those who believe the measures violate the rules-based system of fair trade, New Zealand is unlikely is join the choir.

“I think, to date, we’ve been very measured in terms of any political statements around President Trump’s actions.

“I think that is probably going to be the way that we continue to go. There isn’t a huge amount to be gained by jumping up and down and criticizing the US.

“Now that may sound like we’re being a bit weak, but I think we have to be pragmatic. New Zealand making a song and dance isn’t going to change President Trump’s mind about tariffs, so perhaps we’re better off taking the diplomatic route, trying to talk to people in this administration, position New Zealand as a partner.”

Trump should be told ‘allies are not lackeys’

But, Otago University international relations professor Robert Patman says New Zealand and other liberal democracies should make their opposition to the tariffs loud and clear.

“We always see ourselves as a good international citizen. Well, we actually need to walk the talk,” he said.

“And that means to say we need to make it quite clear, along with Australia and other liberal democracies that Mr Trump’s attempts to single out traditional allies of the United States for this sort of top-down pressure is unacceptable. Allies are not lackeys,” he said.

Patman said Trump’s “America First” approach to alliances and international institutions implies that other parties involved in the alliances took second place.

“I do think it is important that the United States is left under no illusions that everyone is going to quake in their boots and fold in front of them under Mr Trump.”

Noting that New Zealand did have an ongoing trade dispute with Canada over dairy quotas under the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), he said the relationship was strong.

US tariffs won’t affect profits says Fisher & Paykel

Although Fisher & Paykel Healthcare said US tariffs will increase the cost of the goods it makes in Mexico that isn’t expected to have a material impact on this year’s net profit.

The company manufactures about 45 percent of its products in Mexico and 55 percent in New Zealand, said managing director Lewis Gradon.

About 60 percent of its products sold in the US are made in Mexico, with US-based customers generating about 43 percent of its first-half-year revenue.

Gradon said they’re taking a long-term view, working with global suppliers and US customers to mitigate the impact of the US tariffs.

‘In a wait and see period’

Executive director at ExportNZ, Joshua Tan, said while the change brings possible risks and opportunities, right now exporters are “in a wait and see period given that the Trump administration hasn’t actually announced anything on New Zealand.”

“There could be an opportunity for New Zealand to replace Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods in the US market and for our products to replace US products in those markets.

“The great thing is New Zealand has free trade agreements with all three.”

“We’re pretty confident our exporters can adjust to global changes… but it’s pretty hard to break down at this point.”

Source: RNZ

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Police say person who fired gun at officers still at large

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Police say a person who fired a gun at officers in Napier is still at large.

Eastern District Commander Superintendent Joel Lamb said Police tried to stop a vehicle in the Pirimai Area at about 10pm on Tuesday.

He said someone in the back seat pointed what was presumed to be a firearm at officers pursuing the vehicle.

“Staff have then heard two distinct gunshots as the firearm was discharged.

“Fortunately, neither of our officers were injured, and the patrol vehicle did not sustain any damage.”

He said hours later, the vehicle was seen travelling north on the Waikato Expressway towards Auckland.

Police seized the vehicle at an address in Manurewa, but they had not found the alleged offender.

Lamb said people who lived at the Manurewa address were engaging with Police.

He said Eastern District and Counties Manukau Police were making enquiries.

“Presenting a firearm at a Police officer is a serious escalation that puts our staff and the wider community at risk. This behaviour is entirely unacceptable.

“We are taking this incident extremely seriously and will be pursuing all lines of enquiry to locate the offender and hold them accountable.”

Police asked anyone who witnessed the incident to contact Police on 105 or online using the reference number 261111/3764.

Information could also be provided anonymously via Crime Stoppers on 0800 555 111.

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New Zealand sides named for RLWC finals

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The players tasked with ending Australia’s Rugby League World Cup dominance have been named.

The Kiwis and Kiwi Ferns have announced their squads for this Sunday’s World Cup finals in Brisbane.

Both sides are chasing their first titles since 2008, and both are looking to end their opponents run of three crowns in a row.

“Our Kiwi Ferns have been so dominant in years gone by, and we want to bring dominance back to this jersey, so I think it will be a case of who wants it more,” said co-captain Georgia Hale of the impending clash.

The Kiwis get a major boost for the final as they welcome back Ronaldo Mulitalo after he served a one-match ban for a high tackle against Fiji Bati.

Mulitalo replaces Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, who moves to the six-man bench, which again includes utility Te Maire Martin, middle forwards Naufahu Whyte, Erin Clark and Xavier Willison plus fullback Keano Kini.

Loose forward Joseph Tapine will make his 30th Test appearance in a familiar pack again, including second-rowers Isaiah Papali’i and Briton Nikora, and props James Fisher-Harris and Moses Leota.

Winger Jamayne Isaako is on the cusp of claiming the New Zealand record for most Test points.

His five goals against Tonga lifted his career points tally to 225 – level with Shaun Johnson – while centre Casey McLean goes into the final with 16 tries in just eight Tests.

Fisher-Harris will again captain the team.

Fullback Ponga said the goal of the group was clear.

“We have high expectations around what we want to achieve, and obviously winning a world Cup is one of them.”

Meanwhile, Ricky Henry has selected a settled side to take on the Jillaroos, led by their lethal centre combination of Stacey Waaka and Mele Hufanga.

Veteran Apii Nicholls takes the number one jersey, Leianne Tufuga and Mackenzie Wiki on the wings.

Henry has stuck with his halves pairing of Chantay Kiria-Ratu and Raecene McGregor with Alexis Tauaneai, Georgia Hale and Otesa Pule up front.

Rounding out the starting pack is Shaniece Monschau, Kaiyah Atai, and Angelina Teakaraanga-Katoa.

“We have been building well throughout the tournament; we understand the Jillaroos side, and will give it our all to make New Zealand proud this weekend,” said Henry.

RLWC Finals:

Kiwi Ferns vs Jillaroos- 6.10pm

Kiwis vs Kangaroos – 9.35pm

Sunday November 15

Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Live blog updates on RNZ

Kiwi Ferns:

1. Apii Nicholls 2. Leianne Tufuga 3. Mele Hufanga 4. Stacey Waaka 5. Mackenzie Wiki 6. Chantay Kiria-Ratu 7. Raecene McGregor 8. Alexis Tauaneai 9. Georgia Hale 10. Otesa Pule 11. Shaniece Monschau 12. Kaiyah Atai 13. Angelina Teakaraanga-Katoa.

Interchange: 14. Ashleigh Quinlan 15. Annessa Biddle 16. Shannon Mato 17. Ivana Lauitiiti.

Reserves: 18. Brooke Anderson 19. Zahara Temara 20. Brianna Clark 21. Abigail Roache 22. Tenika Willison.

Kiwis:

1. Kalyn Ponga, 2. Jamayne Isaako, 3. Dane Gagai, 4. Casey McLean, 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo, 6. Kodi Nikorima, 7. Jahrome Hughes, 8. James Fisher-Harris (c), 9. Jeremy Marshall-King, 10. Moses Leota, 11. Isaiah Papali’i, 12. Briton Nikora, 13. Joseph Tapine (v/c).

Interchange: 14. Te Maire Martin, 15. Naufahu Whyte, 16. Erin Clark, 17. Xavier Willison.

Reserves: 18. Keano Kini, 19. Phoenix Crossland, 20. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, 21. Scott Sorensen, 22. Leo Thompson.

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Opportunities to mitigate multi-million-dollar RNZ budget blowout likely missed – experts

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Multiple opportunities to identify and mitigate a multi-million-dollar budget blowout at RNZ appear have been missed, according to the former executive director at Audit New Zealand.

The public broadcaster on Monday revealed a near $12 million shock financial loss after a litany of financial blunders, which will now lead to sweeping job cuts.

The $11.8m loss is more than 25 times the $470,000 RNZ had expected to lose over the year to June.

CEO Paul Thompson took responsibility for the result, and said internal reports gave an inaccurate picture of the finances, meaning the scale of the loss only became clear in October.

RNZ’s former chief financial officer Hilary Parker resigned unexpectedly in early October.

The board said it would commission an independent review into what went wrong.

Independent contractor Stephen Walker, who left the Audit Office earlier this year, said the size of the loss was surprising, as was the length of time it took to identify it – months after the financial year ended.

Stephen Walker.
Independent contractor Stephen Walker is a former executive director at Audit New Zealand.

Supplied / OAG

“Probably more of a concern is that they had seemingly been unaware that they were running up a significant deficit until they were in the preparation stage of their annual report in October.”

Walker said public entities typically produced monthly financial reports.

An interim audit also took place before the end of the financial year, he said, but if the organisation hadn’t identified significant losses at that stage, the auditor could also be in the dark.

“It seems that there’s a real weakness in forecasting and budgeting that’s occurred here and that the monthly accounts, when they’re produced, either haven’t identified these significant variances against budget or the magnitude of them really hasn’t come to light until right towards the end of the financial year,” Walker said.

“And really at that point, there’s no opportunity for the chief executive, the leadership team to take, and the board to take, any corrective action because the year has effectively been completed.”

Walker said the “significant miss” was difficult to account for given it was more than 10 percent of RNZ’s total funding.

He said based on RNZ’s annual report, financial complexity didn’t appear to be a factor.

“This $11.8m loss isn’t made up of one particular item … it seems to have been contributed to by a number of separate expense lines running over budget. So I don’t think it’s necessarily to do with complexity.”

Among the errors, RNZ wrongly counted $2m from land sales as income in its budget. Staff costs also came in $3.2m over budget, including $1.4m in redundancy payments.

Professor at Auckland University’s business school Norman Wong said based on media reports the issues identified were “significant and troubling”.

Norman Wong.
Norman Wong.

Supplied / University of Auckland

“But recognising the sale of land as income in their budget is a basic error that one would have expected to have been caught and corrected well before it got to this point.”

With funding reductions at RNZ over the past two years, Walker expected greater scrutiny of financial results.

“Virtually every public entity has had their annual budget reduced. And so you would expect … the leadership team on a monthly basis and board – I’m not sure how frequently the board will consider the information – but you would expect them to be interrogating the results on a regular basis throughout the year,” he said.

Walker said initiating an independent review was the correct course of action and that he’d want to understand what information the leadership team and the board were regularly receiving.

He said he’d “love to say” surprising financial results were rare, but conceded they occured on a semi-frequent basis during his time leading the Audit Office.

“The benefit of independent scrutiny by the Audit Office – and the auditors providing that support to the Auditor General – [is] that the reporting is fairly presented at the end of the year, whether it’s good, bad or ugly.”

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