{"id":18394,"date":"2026-09-02T06:02:41","date_gmt":"2026-09-01T18:02:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thebuzz.apnanetwork.co.nz\/?p=18394"},"modified":"2026-09-02T06:02:41","modified_gmt":"2026-09-01T18:02:41","slug":"rbnz-set-to-deliver-another-rate-rise-with-more-to-come","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thebuzz.apnanetwork.co.nz\/?p=18394","title":{"rendered":"RBNZ set to deliver another rate rise &#8211; with more to come"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"font-serif-text leading-normal [&amp;_li&gt;ol.list]:!mt-4 [&amp;_li&gt;ol.list]:!pb-0 [&amp;_li&gt;ul.list]:!mt-4 [&amp;_li&gt;ul.list]:!pb-0 [&amp;_li]:!mb-8 [&amp;_ol]:pb-4 [&amp;_ul]:pb-4\">\n<ul class=\"list [&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">\n<li class=\"\">The Reserve Bank is set to deliver a 25 basis point rise to OCR to 2.75 percent<\/li>\n<li class=\"\">Economists and financial markets overwhelmingly expect a rate rise<\/li>\n<li class=\"\">Attention will be on the content and tone of statement, and forecast track for the OCR<\/li>\n<li class=\"\">The RBNZ to repeat reducing stimulus, not tapping the brakes<\/li>\n<li class=\"\">Fall in oil prices, improved consumer and business sentiment point to a recovery, despite weak labour market<\/li>\n<li class=\"\">Most agree there is a need to get on top of 4.1 percent inflation, although a minority argue the economy needs more help<\/li>\n<li class=\"\">At least one more OCR rise is expected this year, probably in December, and couple of times in the first half of 2027<\/li>\n<li class=\"\">Decision due 2pm<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">A second consecutive rise in the Reserve Bank&#8217;s (RBNZ) benchmark interest rate this afternoon looks a foregone conclusion as falls in oil prices lift hopes that inflation has peaked, and economic recovery is about to resume.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">Economists and financial markets are almost unanimous in picking the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will raise the official cash rate (OCR) after July&#8217;s first step on the tightening path.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold said there had not been that much difference between what has happened to the economy and what the RBNZ was expecting back in its May forecasts.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">&#8220;It&#8217;s possible the RBNZ&#8217;s view won&#8217;t have shifted that much. We tend to think there won&#8217;t be much of a shift in the RBNZ&#8217;s OCR<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">forecasts given the significant uncertainties at present.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said recent inflation indicators had been more benign than expected, while other data &#8211; such as growth, job creation, business and consumer confidence &#8211; suggested the economy might not be as weak as expected.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">She said taken all together it pointed to getting the OCR back to a neutral level in an orderly fashion.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">&#8220;It makes sense for the RBNZ to continue along the path of getting the OCR back closer to neutral (3 percent) in the face of upside risks to inflation and a starting point north of the (1-3 percent) target band.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"[&amp;_h2]:text-md [&amp;_h3]:text-md [&amp;_h4]:text-md clear-left mb-12 pt-16\">\n<h3 class=\"text-fluid-md-lg leading-snug [&amp;_em]:font-sans-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-sans-italic font-sans-semibold\">What next ?<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">The closest scrutiny will be on the indicative track for the OCR, with financial markets split between October and December.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">Some have questioned whether the RBNZ would want to raise in October, just a couple weeks before the election, or wait until its final meeting in early December, or perhaps raise in both meetings.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">&#8220;In a world of such extreme uncertainty, flexibility is very valuable. An OCR track that leaves optionality regarding the October meeting seems sensible.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">The MPC&#8217;s rate track in May implied the OCR being raised to at least 3.25 percent by the middle of next year, and there are some forecasters who see the OCR needing to be raised towards 4 percent as the economy grows.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"[&amp;_h2]:text-md [&amp;_h3]:text-md [&amp;_h4]:text-md clear-left mb-12 pt-16\">\n<h3 class=\"text-fluid-md-lg leading-snug [&amp;_em]:font-sans-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-sans-italic font-sans-semibold\">Dissenter &#8211; growth is beautiful<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">The loudest dissenting voice remained Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr, who has been vocally calling on the RBNZ all year to back off rate rises to let the economy get off its knees and grow.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">&#8220;Growth solves many problems, and enabling growth is a bold, but beautiful move.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">&#8220;Inflation is not a big problem&#8230; There&#8217;s no need to hike rates aggressively to restrain what is already restrained.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">A member of the Institute of Economic Research&#8217;s (NZIER) &#8220;shadow monetary policy board&#8221;, Kelly Gupwell of environmental company Boffa Miskell, was inclined to Kerr&#8217;s view.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">&#8220;Inflation remains a concern; however, the recovery still feels uneven and the effects of previous rate increases are continuing to work through the economy.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">&#8220;I&#8217;d like to see stronger evidence that inflation pressures are becoming embedded before supporting another increase.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Reserve Bank is set to deliver a 25 basis point rise to OCR to 2.75 percent Economists and financial markets overwhelmingly expect a rate rise Attention will be on the content and tone of statement, and forecast track for the OCR The RBNZ to repeat reducing stimulus, not tapping the brakes Fall in oil [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":18395,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[222,174],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18394","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-news","category-nz-news"],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thebuzz.apnanetwork.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18394","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thebuzz.apnanetwork.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thebuzz.apnanetwork.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thebuzz.apnanetwork.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thebuzz.apnanetwork.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18394"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thebuzz.apnanetwork.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18394\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18396,"href":"https:\/\/thebuzz.apnanetwork.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18394\/revisions\/18396"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thebuzz.apnanetwork.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/18395"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thebuzz.apnanetwork.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18394"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thebuzz.apnanetwork.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18394"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thebuzz.apnanetwork.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18394"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}