{"id":18220,"date":"2026-08-13T05:05:55","date_gmt":"2026-08-12T17:05:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thebuzz.apnanetwork.co.nz\/?p=18220"},"modified":"2026-08-13T05:05:55","modified_gmt":"2026-08-12T17:05:55","slug":"the-opportunity-party-could-decide-next-government-new-poll-shows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thebuzz.apnanetwork.co.nz\/?p=18220","title":{"rendered":"The Opportunity Party could decide next government, new poll shows"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">The Opportunity Party has the numbers to enter Parliament &#8211; and act as kingmaker &#8211; according to the latest 1News Verian poll.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">The poll, which was taken in the days leading up to the prime minister&#8217;s confidence vote, has Labour in the lead, and National riding steady.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">It suggests a left bloc that includes Opportunity could form a government, after Christopher Luxon\u00a0<a class=\"underline-brand-hover visited:text-foreground-secondary hover:visited:text-foreground-primary\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rnz.co.nz\/news\/politics\/809555\/national-rules-out-working-with-opportunity-party\">ruled out working with the party<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\"><strong class=\"font-serif-text-medium\">The results of the poll:<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text leading-normal [&amp;_li&gt;ol.list]:!mt-4 [&amp;_li&gt;ol.list]:!pb-0 [&amp;_li&gt;ul.list]:!mt-4 [&amp;_li&gt;ul.list]:!pb-0 [&amp;_li]:!mb-8 [&amp;_ol]:pb-4 [&amp;_ul]:pb-4\">\n<ul class=\"list [&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">\n<li class=\"\"><strong class=\"font-serif-text-medium\">Labour: 30 percent, down 2 (38 seats)<\/strong><\/li>\n<li class=\"\"><strong class=\"font-serif-text-medium\">National: 29 percent, no change (36 seats)<\/strong><\/li>\n<li class=\"\"><strong class=\"font-serif-text-medium\">Green Party: 12 percent, down 1 (15 seats)<\/strong><\/li>\n<li class=\"\"><strong class=\"font-serif-text-medium\">ACT: 9 percent, up 3 (11 seats)<\/strong><\/li>\n<li class=\"\"><strong class=\"font-serif-text-medium\">New Zealand First: 8 percent, down 3 (10 seats)<\/strong><\/li>\n<li class=\"\"><strong class=\"font-serif-text-medium\">Opportunity: 8 percent, up 3 (9 seats)<\/strong><\/li>\n<li class=\"\"><strong class=\"font-serif-text-medium\">Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori: 1 percent, down 1 point (6 seats)<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">11 percent of people said they did not know, or refused to answer.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">The 1News Verian poll assumes the current M\u0101ori electorate incumbents hold their seats, meaning the poll has a 125-seat Parliament.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">It means neither current bloc would have enough seats to form a majority, with Labour, the Greens, and Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori on 59, and National, ACT and New Zealand First on 57.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">With Opportunity, the left bloc would have 68 seats &#8211; enough to govern. If Luxon changed his mind about working with Opportunity, the right bloc would have 66 seats.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">Luxon ruled out working with Opportunity near the end of July, while Chris Hipkins officially ruled out New Zealand First earlier this week &#8211; earning a rebuke from Winston Peters.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"pb-16 pt-8\">\n<div class=\"grid justify-center\">\n<figure class=\"mx-auto table\">\n<div class=\"image-ring flex w-full max-w-full -mx-16 md:mx-0 w-screen border-x-0 !max-w-[initial] md:w-[revert-layer] md:!max-w-full [&amp;_img]:w-full [&amp;_img]:md:w-[revert-layer]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"ml:max-h-[50rem] max-w-full aspect-[16\/10] object-cover\" src=\"https:\/\/media.rnztools.nz\/rnz\/image\/upload\/s--TKltzImu--\/t_kt-crop-16x10\/w_614\/f_auto\/q_auto:eco\/4JK0FXD_Image_10_jpg\" alt=\"Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has survived a second confidence vote following an urgent caucus meeting on 12 August.\" width=\"614\" height=\"384\" \/><\/div><figcaption class=\"border-stroke-default w-full border-b py-12 text-sm *:inline table-caption caption-bottom mt-auto\">The new poll comes after a bruising day for Christopher Luxon&#8217;s premiership.<\/p>\n<p class=\"text-foreground-secondary flex-shrink-0 ml-4\">RNZ \/ Zach Cornelisen<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">The poll was conducted from 8 to 11 August, with a sample size of 847.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">Earlier on Wednesday, the poll revealed a further 1 point drop for Luxon in the preferred prime minister ratings, putting him on 17 percent.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">That was still ahead of Chris Hipkins, who was on 15 percent, also down one point.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">Rounding out the top three, Winston Peters was on 7 percent, down 3 points.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">Chl\u00f6e Swarbrick was steady on 6 percent, David Seymour was up 1 point to 5 percent, Erica Stanford was up 1 point to 2 percent, and Kieran McAnulty was also up 1 point to 2 percent.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"[&amp;_h2]:text-md [&amp;_h3]:text-md [&amp;_h4]:text-md clear-left mb-12 pt-16\">\n<h3 class=\"text-fluid-md-lg leading-snug [&amp;_em]:font-sans-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-sans-italic font-sans-semibold\">Another difficult day for Luxon<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">The new poll comes just hours after Christopher Luxon\u00a0<a class=\"underline-brand-hover visited:text-foreground-secondary hover:visited:text-foreground-primary\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rnz.co.nz\/news\/politics\/969511\/pm-christopher-luxon-survives-another-confidence-vote-with-full-support-of-caucus\">survived the second attempt to oust him in the past few months<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">Luxon held an abrupt press conference on Wednesday afternoon, where he confirmed he had survived that confidence vote.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">He said he had the &#8220;full support&#8221; of the National Party caucus, and was focused on the election.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"py-8\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-12 pb-12 -mx-16 w-screen md:mx-0 md:w-full\">\n<div class=\"relative aspect-video\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">Later on Wednesday, Luxon confirmed he had\u00a0<a class=\"underline-brand-hover visited:text-foreground-secondary hover:visited:text-foreground-primary\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rnz.co.nz\/news\/politics\/975747\/chris-penk-loses-ministerial-portfolios-after-luxon-leadership-challenge\">removed MP Chris Penk&#8217;s ministerial portfolios<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">&#8220;Chris Penk launched a leadership challenge this week, which resulted in today&#8217;s confidence vote. This makes his role untenable and as such I have removed his portfolios,&#8221; Luxon said earlier on Wednesday.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">Paul Goldsmith is taking up the Defence, Veterans, Space, GCSB, and NZSIS portfolios.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">Simon Watts will become Minister for Building and Construction.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"font-serif-text mb-12 leading-normal\">\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\"><em class=\"italic\">*An earlier version of this story showed Opportunity with 9 percent, the figure should have been 8 percent<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>RNZ<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Opportunity Party has the numbers to enter Parliament &#8211; and act as kingmaker &#8211; according to the latest 1News Verian poll. The poll, which was taken in the days leading up to the prime minister&#8217;s confidence vote, has Labour in the lead, and National riding steady. It suggests a left bloc that includes Opportunity [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":18221,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[222,174],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18220","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-news","category-nz-news"],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thebuzz.apnanetwork.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18220","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thebuzz.apnanetwork.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thebuzz.apnanetwork.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thebuzz.apnanetwork.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thebuzz.apnanetwork.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18220"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thebuzz.apnanetwork.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18220\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18222,"href":"https:\/\/thebuzz.apnanetwork.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18220\/revisions\/18222"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thebuzz.apnanetwork.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/18221"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thebuzz.apnanetwork.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18220"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thebuzz.apnanetwork.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18220"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thebuzz.apnanetwork.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18220"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}