{"id":17970,"date":"2026-07-22T13:16:15","date_gmt":"2026-07-22T01:16:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thebuzz.apnanetwork.co.nz\/?p=17970"},"modified":"2026-07-22T13:16:15","modified_gmt":"2026-07-22T01:16:15","slug":"new-zealand-now-at-risk-of-missing-all-its-climate-targets-climate-commission-warns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thebuzz.apnanetwork.co.nz\/?p=17970","title":{"rendered":"New Zealand now at risk of missing all its climate targets, Climate Commission warns"},"content":{"rendered":"
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New Zealand is at risk of missing all of its climate targets, and time to get back on track is running out, the Climate Change Commission says.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The commission says lagging progress on switching to low-emissions technology is no longer just a climate change problem: it’s preventing households from saving money on energy costs.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Its annual emissions monitoring report said New Zealand’s climate pollution had gradually decreased over time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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However, progress stalled in 2024, and the pace of reductions now needed to double to get back on track, it said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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If the government did not come up with new ways to save emissions within the next year or two, the country would not be able to meet some of its targets at all, the commission warned.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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“The time available to correct course is now short,” the report said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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“Many emissions reductions depend on decisions made well before the reductions are realised, and some options … are no longer available.”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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That included planting more forestry, which would not mature quickly enough to meet the nearest targets.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The risks were across nearly every sector, the report said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Agricultural emission pricing had been axed, and current government policies and industry incentive schemes were insufficient to bring methane emissions down.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Confidence in the emissions trading scheme – which the government has said is its main tool to drive down greenhouse gases – was “fragile”.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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And almost all the emissions reductions in industry to date were from projects funded by the previous government’s GIDI scheme, which the current government scrapped.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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‘Current policy settings not delivering at pace needed’<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
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“This is a clear warning sign,” commission chief executive Jo Hendy said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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“Current policy settings are not delivering at the pace needed. Government choices in the next 12 to 24 months will be critical to getting the country back on track.”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\"Climate<\/div>
Climate Change Commission chief executive Jo Hendy says government choices in the next year or two will be critical.<\/p>\n

RNZ \/ Dom Thomas<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Climate disruption was already affecting households through severe weather events – but inaction was also adding to everyday cost of living.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Low-emissions technology like solar panels and EVs were cheaper to run than fossil fuel equivalents, but the upfront costs to households meant roll-out was lagging, Hendy said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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“This isn’t just a missed opportunity to reduce emissions, it means that households and businesses may be paying higher energy costs than they need to.”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The government had low-cost opportunities to fix that, through targeted funding and financing and better information for households about their choices.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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“It’s not just about what the government spends money on, but also the signals it gives,” Hendy said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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“Clear and stable policy settings help households, businesses and investors make decisions with confidence.”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\"Solar<\/div>
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Unsplash<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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National has said it will campaign on a home energy scheme to make low-cost loans available to help households shift to solar.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Labour<\/a>\u00a0and the\u00a0Greens<\/a>\u00a0have announced similar policies, and questioned why the government is\u00a0not using their support to enact the loan scheme now<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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At the moment, the country’s flagship net-zero target for 2050 – which is enshrined in law – would not be met, the commission said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The government must also meet emissions ‘budgets’ – the maximum amount of emissions the country can produce in a five-year time period – in order to keep it on track for 2050.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The current emissions budget was at significant risk, and the subsequent one would not be met with current plans and policies, the commission said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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That was despite climate accounting changes that had actually made the budgets easier to achieve.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The country was now also off-track to meet a 2030 target of reducing methane emissions by 10 percent.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The government had announced some actions to reduce emissions, but these were likely to be outweighed by other decisions it had made that could increase emissions.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The report also took aim at the government’s emissions projections – saying in some cases they “do not appear to be driven by a realistic assessment of current policy”.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Earlier this year,\u00a0Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment Simon Upton said<\/a>\u00a0the government’s assumptions about uptake of a methane vaccine for livestock were “heroic”.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The government’s baseline emissions projections rely on at least 37 percent of dairy cattle receiving a vaccine by 2030 – but the vaccines are still only at ‘proof-of-concept’ stage.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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“Not only do we not yet have such a vaccine, but the government’s decision to abandon a price on methane removes the incentive to use one should it materialise,” Upton said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Some of the actions that could increase emissions include:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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