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Geoffrey Miller: Antony Blinken’s endgame for New Zealand, AUKUS and a visit down under

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The US Secretary of State’s visit to New Zealand and Australia this week comes as the two countries jointly host the FIFA Women’s World Cup.

New Zealand foreign minister Nanaia Mahuta has highlighted the potential for ‘good old-fashioned sports diplomacy’ – and the secretary is scheduled to attend the United States vs Netherlands match in Wellington on Thursday afternoon.

But the travel is more than just a chance to take in a game.

Antony Blinken’s visit just happens to coincide with a trip to Wellington by Anthony Albanese.

The Australian prime minister is coming for talks with his New Zealand counterpart, Chris Hipkins.

It seems inevitable that New Zealand’s potential role in the AUKUS defence pact will be up for discussion in closed-door meetings involving Albanese, Blinken, Hipkins and Mahuta.

The US Secretary of State will arrive in New Zealand after a stopover in Tonga to dedicate a new US embassy in Nuku’alofa.

The new US embassy in Tonga fulfils a pledge made by US Vice President Kamala Harris in a virtual address to the Pacific Islands Forum in July last year.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken shakes hands with Tonga’s Prime Minister Tonga’s Prime Minister Hu’akavemeiliku Siaosi in Nuku'alofa on 26 July, 2023.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken shakes hands with Tonga’s Prime Minister Tonga’s Prime Minister Hu’akavemeiliku Siaosi in Nuku’alofa on 26 July. Photo: AFP/ Tupou Vaipulu

The swift opening of the new diplomatic mission – which commenced operations in May – is one way to show that Washington means business when it comes to the Pacific.

An in-person visit to Tonga – population 100,000 – by America’s top diplomat is another.

Further south, calls on New Zealand by top-ranking US officials have traditionally also been rare: the last visit by a US Secretary of State came when Rex Tillerson spent eight hours in Wellington in 2017.

But New Zealand has seen a parade of senior US officials arriving over the past year, including Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, White House Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbell and Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Kritenbrink.

Soon after Campbell’s visit in March, New Zealand’s defence minister Andrew Little indicated New Zealand was willing to explore joining the ‘second pillar’ of AUKUS – comments that were later somewhat walked back by Hipkins.

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In recent years, New Zealand has already made remarkable foreign policy shifts – and it is worth remembering just how far Wellington has come.

After all, when Tillerson visited six years ago, New Zealand was still getting used to rebuilding ties with the United States, after the bilateral relationship had languished for several decades.

The US suspended its obligations to New Zealand under the ANZUS treaty in 1986, in response to the introduction of a nuclear-free policy by New Zealand’s Fourth Labour Government.

Normalisation began with the ‘Wellington Declaration’ – signed when Hillary Clinton visited New Zealand in 2010 – and the companion military-focused ‘Washington Declaration’ in 2012.

However, the US began allowing New Zealand into its military drills even later: New Zealand was invited to participate in the joint US-Australia ‘Talisman Sabre’ exercise for the first time in 2015.

New Zealand has been a consistent participant since then, including in the 2023 edition of Talisman Sabre that is currently underway in northern Australia.

This year’s version is the biggest yet, involving 13 countries and some 30,000 troops.

Countries involved for the first time include Germany and India (the latter as an observer), while militaries from all three of the smaller Pacific Island nations that have standing armies are also on board: Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Tonga.

While all militaries need to train, this year’s Talisman Sabre is designed more than ever to project US-led unity and strength vis-à-vis China.

In this respect, New Zealand presents something of a dilemma.

Wellington’s foreign policy has undoubtedly become more hardline over the past year.

By and large, New Zealand has been listening and responding to its more hawkish Western partners.

Chris Hipkins’ Labour Government has signed up to new US-led groupings and joint statements, expanded New Zealand’s ties with NATO and committed to spending hundreds of millions of dollars more on its military.

But as Hipkins’ recent trip to China showed, New Zealand is still China’s best friend in the West – and in substance and tone, the New Zealand prime minister is still striking a markedly softer tone than his more hawkish friends.

For the most part, Hipkins is content to describe Wellington’s relationship with Beijing as ‘complex’ and has largely settled on the relatively mild adjective of ‘assertive’ to describe China’s ambitions.

The ‘assertive’ descriptor popped up in Hipkins’ most-detailed foreign policy address to date, made to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs (NZIIA) shortly before the PM headed to Europe for the NATO summit in mid-July.

The PM then referred to ‘China’s increasing assertiveness’ in his speech in Vilnius – and he drew on ‘assertive’ once again when he spoke to the recent China Business Summit in Auckland.

The choice has not come out of thin air: the strongest words on Beijing in the recent Strategic Foreign Policy Assessment from New Zealand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) are a reference to ‘the Chinese Government’s more assertive foreign policy’.

The MFAT blueprint also frequently deploys the ‘complex’ wording favoured by Hipkins.

This results in some rather tortured and deliberately oblique phrasings in reference to risks for New Zealand, such as ‘increasing regional complexities arising from engagement by development partners from outside the region’.

By contrast, the NATO leaders’ communique issued in Lithuania is crystal clear in its calling-out of Beijing: ‘The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) stated ambitions and coercive policies challenge our interests, security and values’.

To be fair, Antony Blinken himself has attempted to take a more constructive tone of late in a bid to build bridges with Beijing, following the recent visits by the Secretary of State and other top US officials to China.

But this should still be seen in context: while Blinken was conciliatory when he pledged in June to ‘manage’ US rivalry with China ‘so that the relationship does not veer into conflict’, he also recently delivered remarks in Indonesia that decried ‘the use of force, coercion, or aggression’ – talking points that were squarely aimed at Beijing.

Back in Wellington, New Zealand may now be reading the same book as its Western partners, but it is not yet quite on the same page.

But there is still time for the US to influence the trajectory of New Zealand foreign policy.

The most significant components of New Zealand’s foreign policy realignment are yet to come.

Hipkins recently [National Security Strategy signalled the release] of a new National Security Strategy, while the results from an expedited ‘Defence Policy Review’ process are expected soon.

But with New Zealand’s election taking place on 14 October, the reports – and Blinken’s visit – are likely to inform decisions that will be taken by the country’s next government.

Antony Blinken is entering New Zealand’s field of play.

The geopolitical stakes are high.

And the game is not over yet.

* Geoffrey Miller is the Democracy Project’s geopolitical analyst and writes on current New Zealand foreign policy and related geopolitical issues. He has lived in Germany and the Middle East and is a learner of Arabic and Russian. He is currently working on a PhD on New Zealand’s relations with the Gulf states.

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The ‘disgusting creep’ who raped his daughter, step-grandaughter, sisters and former partners

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This story discusses details of long-term sexual and physical abuse.

For about four decades a South Island predator carried out the most horrific offending against those close to him, including raping his daughter, step-granddaughter, sisters, and former partners. National Crime Correspondent Sam Sherwood reports.

Standing inside the dock at the High Court, the man stood quietly in his prison clothes as his lawyer formalised the guilty pleas and discussed arrangements for sentencing.

There was no mention in the brief hearing of the extent of his offending before he walked back out of the dock to be sent back to prison where he will stay until he is sentenced later this year.

Inside a court document released to RNZ is the full story of the man’s offending, detailing 20 charges he has pleaded guilty to, with offending that began in the 1980s through to the 2020s.

It includes eight charges of sexual violation by rape (seven of which are representative), a representative charge of rape, and eight charges of sexual violation by unlawful sexual connection (six of which are representative).

He also pleaded guilty to a representative charge of making objectionable material, a representative charge of doing an indecent act on a young person and one charge of wounding with intent to injure.

His offending includes raping his daughter, his step-granddaughter, two of his sisters, and two ex-partners. He also committed indecent acts on a distant relative.

The man now in his 50s has interim name suppression. RNZ is not reporting the locations of his offending or the court in which he is being sentenced, to avoid the victims being identified.

Twenty years of violence

The court document begins by discussing the man’s offending against an ex-partner who he began dating in the early 1990s when she was 17. It did not take long before he became violent, “physically, emotionally and sexually”.

The woman, who had four children with the man, left in about 2015.

“During the relationship, which lasted around 20 years, the defendant offered violence towards the victim by hitting, pushing, and kicking her. On one occasion he smacked her in the face over making a coffee.”

In one incident, while pregnant with her first child, the man punched her in the eye and kicked her in the stomach, telling her he hoped her baby died.

The woman thought she was going die during one assault when he put his hands around around her neck, squeezing so it was difficult for her to breathe.

The summary of facts says by the mid 2000s the man raped her multiple times.

The man also pleaded guilty to a representative charge of sexual violation by rape in relation to another former partner.

The woman was 15 when she began a sexual relationship in 1990 with the man, who was then 21.

“The victim recalls feeling controlled by the defendant. She recalls the defendant being a jealous person. He didn’t like her joking or laughing with anyone of the opposite sex.

The summary of facts refers to three occasions where the man raped her.

The relationship ended when she turned 16.

Man raped daughter ‘whenever he had the opportunity’

The man also offended against one of his children.

The summary of facts says his daughter lived with him in several different houses from when she was born until she was about 16 and left home.

The offending started in about 2006/2007 when she was five and lasted until she was 15.

“While [she] was around 5 to 6 years old, she recalls her father raping her whenever he had the opportunity.”

After the first attack he told her what happened was “secret between them, and she wasn’t allowed to tell her mother”.

The court document refers to one incident when her father was driving down a gravel road.

“Knowing what was going to happen, she jumped out of the car and ran off. He then drove away leaving her there frightened in the pitch black.”

The man started letting his daughter go out drinking alcohol with friends between the ages of 13-15.

“She recalls getting home drunk on several occasions, where he would proceed to rape her while she was intoxicated. [She] described him as thriving off any situation she was intoxicated.”

In the early 2020s, the man also offended against his step granddaughter.

The girl was two when her mother began dating the man’s son.

The relationship lasted about five years before she and her mother moved to another city.

Since then, the girl travelled once a month to stay with her stepfather and the man who lived in the same house.

She would often sleep in the man’s bedroom, which had a second mattress prepared.

When the girl was aged between 6 and 8, he raped her for the first time. He also took multiple photos of the victim being raped by as well as other photos of her.

‘Disgusting creep’

The man also raped two of his sisters.

One of his sisters recalled living with the family at a property when she was about 13 in the 80s.

“It was here the defendant carried out the sexual activities he wanted with her on a frequent basis until she was around 18 years old.”

He started assaulting another sister when she was about 11 up until she was 17.

“The victim recalls the defendant often saying disgusting comments to her including ‘old enough to bleed, old enough to butcher’.”

When the victim, then in her mid 20s, was about eight months pregnant with her first daughter, the man drove her to deliver something [firewood] after a family gathering. The woman reluctantly went with him after her father insisted.

On their way, he took her to an area he had previously raped her when she was a child and asked to have sex with her.

“The victim told him to ‘f.. off’ and that he was a ‘disgusting creep’. The defendant replied that ‘the other girls still let me do it’.”

She again told him to “f… off” and said he was “sick in the head”.

“To which the defendant replied ‘I know I am’ while smiling.”

The man also admitted a representative charge of indecent act on a young person under 16 in relation to a distant relative.

In response to questions from RNZ, police confirmed the investigation into the man began following an in-person report on 18 January 2024.

“The defendant was arrested and charged with sexual violation offences related to that report on 7 May 2024.

“Further investigations uncovered additional victims and resulted in 94 charges laid in total.”

Where to get help:

If it is an emergency and you feel like you or someone else is at risk, call 111.

Sexual Violence

Family Violence

RNZ

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‘Not as attractive as it used to be’ – Peters on living in NZ today

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Analysis: Winston Peters is on a mission and says the idea that either Chris will be calling the shots once the votes are counted is a nonsense.

With just 26 days of the election campaign to go, the New Zealand First leader is by far the most experienced political leader, having first entered Parliament with the National Party in 1978 before breaking off and setting up his own party in 1993.

In the first MMP election held in 1996, New Zealand First won 17 seats and Peters took on his first stint as deputy prime minister and treasurer.

Heading into the November election, 30 years after the birth of MMP, Peters is convinced stability will return to the increasingly fragmented political landscape this year.

Asked about the evolution of MMP and the potential for three or four parties being needed to form a government based on current polling, Peters said that was a suspicion he did not agree with.

“I think that things are going to be stabilised at the end of this event,” he says with confidence.

Asked to explain whether he thought a two-party governing arrangement was still possible, he replied, “I’m not going to tell you what the permutations are, but there are variations on the thing, which go to the core of your question.”

“Let’s just say the composition of the government,” he added.

Last week National’s Christopher Luxon and Labour’s Chris Hipkins sparred in the first televised leaders’ debate – something Peters is miffed about.

“Why have we seen these two leaders going head-to-head when they will not be deciding the outcome come election day, of that I can guarantee you.

“The first person gets up and says ‘the National government’s going to do this’. The other person says the ‘Labour government’s going to do that’.

“Neither such things exist anymore; they just don’t exist,” he exclaimed.

“But they’re allowed to get away with that sort of language, and in so many ways, the tragedy is – deliberate or not – that the mainstream media are allowing a conversation to happen as though it’s first-past-the-post when it was no longer the case for 33 years.”

Labour and ACT have both released fiscal plans already this campaign and National is due to do the same on Monday, but Peters pushes back on questions about whether his party will do the same.

“Well, we have got a fiscal plan, and we’ve outlaid it for two years. We talked about having a future sovereign fund, what it would cost, and how much would be put into it.

“We laid out that plan two years ago, and we’re going to keep on developing that in more detail in the next few weeks,” he said.

As for other parties, Peters doesn’t believe anything is adding up.

“When you talk about costings, see nobody’s costings are working.

“They’re just lying when they say they are working.”

Peters says that is because the country’s growth rate is nowhere near high enough to afford what is being promised.

“If the economy goes on the way that it is, then all these promises that are being made are worthless because they won’t have the money to do it.”

So after nearly 50 years in and around politics is the octogenarian, who has held some of the most senior roles in government multiple times, enjoying being back in the thick of another campaign for re-election?

“Well, I’m still getting inspirations, yes, I get serious inspirations from it, but I never understood why people say, “are you enjoying it? Because it’s not a matter of enjoyment.

“When you’re on a mission, you’re there to make sure something happens and you believe in the national interest.

“So whether you get an enjoyment out of it, it’s not the point, whether you, like as any decent servant does, feel rewarded by the outcome, that’s probably more important,” he concluded.

Peters still firmly believes New Zealand is an attractive place to live, work, and raise a family – “but it’s not as attractive as it used to be”.

“Our job is to restore it, make it an attractive place again for people to come here who we need, not who need us.”

New Zealand First released its party list last week with well-known new candidates getting prime spots near the top.

While Peters and his fellow current ministers Shane Jones, Casey Costello and Mark Patterson took the top four spots, the next five rankings went to fresh candidates over sitting MPs.

Former National Party minister Alfred Ngaro, former National MP and Whanganui Mayor Michael Laws, former National MP Harete Hipango-Brownlie, former chair of the Financial Markets Authority Craig Stobo, and former All Black captain Taine Randell rounded out the top nine.

In a surprise move, former Defence Minister and New Zealand First MP Ron Mark – who left politics in 2020 – was given the low ranking of 16 on the list despite the party talking up his chances of reclaiming his old ministerial posting if back in government.

Mark had approached the party about a return some time ago, but then dragged the chain confirming whether he would actually run.

Not helping his prospects were comments to media he had other opportunities abroad he could pursue, and making clear he wasn’t excited by the idea of returning to Parliament.

The party has also been keen to present as a rejuvenated version of itself that is attracting candidates from the old National guard.

Ngaro would have secured a decent list ranking before committing to joining the party, while Laws’ high spot lines up with the party being keen for him to hold local government minister in any future government.

Hipango-Brownlie has political experience but also brings a background in law, and a similar te ao Māori view of the world to Peters and Jones.

Stobo has credibility in finance and the economy while Randell is arguably more of a household name than Peters himself, and will be getting primed for a leadership role down the line.

Peters believes the list is the “best set of candidates we’ve ever had”.

“We’ve got a real team, make no bones about it, and that’s what’s giving us the confidence in our present circumstance that we’re going to do well.

“But our job is to ensure we get the maximum number of those people into Parliament.”

It’s all still on the table according to Peters who is convinced nothing is set in stone yet.

“The election is going to be decided in the next three weeks.”

RNZ

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All Blacks: Damian McKenzie at No.10 as Beauden Barrett comes back in from the cold

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Dave Rennie’s best-laid plans for the first Bledisloe Cup test against Australia on Saturday have had to be quickly torn up following Richie Mo’unga’s injury, with Damian McKenzie moved from fullback to No.10 and Beauden Barrett given a rare start.

Most observers assumed Barrett would start at first-five following Mo’unga’s calf issue, floated by RNZ on Wednesday and which was confirmed this morning, but instead Rennie has opted to start Barrett at fullback and move McKenzie a little closer to the action in the absence of the injured Ruben Love.

Still, it represents a significant comeback for Barrett, who was not involved in the first six tests of the year and whose future with the All Blacks appeared tenuous even last month.

After not featuring in the three Nations Championship tests in July, Barrett played a bit-part role in the recent “Greatest Rivalry” series – only coming off the bench in the final test in Baltimore.

All Blacks lock Scott Barrett - All Blacks training held at North Harbour Stadium domain, Auckland - New Zealand - on Tuesday  06  October  2026. 
Photo credit: Brett Phibbs / www.photosport.nz
Scott Barrett will start for the All Blacks in only his third match in nearly 12 months.

Brett Phibbs / www.photosport.nz

Mo’unga, who also had a calf issue on his return to New Zealand from three years in Japan, will also miss the return test in Sydney a week on Saturday.

Rennie’s other option would have been to start the uncapped Josh Jacomb at first-five but, with so much at stake on Saturday – the All Blacks’ unbeaten record at their fortress stretches back 53 tests to 1994 and a victory will lock up the Bledisloe for another year – the selectors have gone with experience over youth.

Barrett will be joined in the starting line-up by brothers Scott and Jordie.

Scott Barrett, selected in the second row with Josh Lord, is playing his first test (and only third match in total) since November last year, with Jordie Barrett named in the midfield as expected alongside Quinn Tupaea, who has recovered from a knee problem which ruled him out of the fourth test against the Springboks.

Other notable selections include Shannon Frizell’s inclusion as loose forward cover on the reserves bench for what will be his first test for the All Blacks since the 2023 World Cup final.

Tupou Vaa’i has been selected at blindside flanker, with Wallace Sititi starting at No.8 in the absence of the injured Ardie Savea, and Peter Lakai named at openside flanker.

Leroy Carter has been named on the left wing, with Will Jordan on the right, as expected. Cam Roigard will start at halfback inside McKenzie.

Ethan de Groot, skipper Codie Taylor and Fletcher Newell make up the front row, with Anton Segner also named as loose forward cover on the bench.

Shannon Frizell of New Zealand. Rugby World Cup France 2023, New Zealand All Blacks v South Africa FInal match at Stade de France, Saint-Denis, France on Saturday 29 October 2023. Photo credit: Andrew Cornaga / www.photosport.nz
Shannon Frizell’s last match for the All Blacks was the Rugby World Cup grand final defeat to South Africa in Paris in 2023.

Andrew Cornaga/www.photosport.nz

The All Blacks have no specialist back-up lock, but Vaa’i is likely to move to the second row in favour of Scott Barrett in the second half, assuming the former captain finds the going difficult after such a long break from the game due to his sabbatical and recent back surgery.

Rieko Ioane and Josh Moorby make up the back reserves, along with back-up halfback Kyle Preston, further pointers to Rennie’s belief that the test will be played at a high tempo.

“The Bledisloe Cup means a huge amount to this group,” Rennie said in a statement.

“There’s a lot of history and pride tied up in it, and every Test against the Wallabies carries real weight for us.

“We have huge respect for this Australian side and the way they have been playing. We know we’ll need to be at our best.

“We’ve been on the road for the last eight games, so the boys are rapt to be home and really looking forward to running out at Eden Park one last time this year.”

All Blacks team to play Australia

(Caps in brackets)

1. Ethan de Groot (45),

2. Codie Taylor (112) – Captain

3. Fletcher Newell (41)

4. Scott Barrett (89)

5. Josh Lord (17)

6. Tupou Vaa’i (51)

7. Peter Lakai (14)

8. Wallace Sititi (23)

9. Cam Roigard (24)

10. Damian McKenzie (81)

11. Leroy Carter (10)

12. Jordie Barrett (85)

13. Quinn Tupaea (29)

14. Will Jordan (61)

15. Beauden Barrett (145).

Reserves:

16. Asafo Aumua (26)

17. George Bower (29)

18. Pasilio Tosi (17)

19. Shannon Frizell (33)

20. Anton Segner (2)

21. Kyle Preston (5)

22. Rieko Ioane (89)

23. Josh Moorby (5)

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